In 1919, Lu Xun, a renowned writer in modern China, penned a captivating short story featuring a destitute Confucian scholar named Kong Yiji. Kong, having failed the imperial civil-service exams, refused to settle for a menial job and fell into poverty. The villagers, lacking sympathy for his predicament and disregarding his intellectual prowess, ridiculed and mistreated him. The story culminated in Kong’s departure from the tavern, his legs broken from a beating he endured for an alleged theft, crawling away never to be seen again.
Fast forward to the present day, and China’s educated youth has developed a strong connection with the ill-fated Kong Yiji. According to official records, one in five Chinese individuals aged 16 to 24 is currently unemployed, the highest rate on record. The value of their hard-earned college degrees has diminished due to a sluggish post-pandemic economy recovery and an ideological crackdown on private enterprise. Many educated young people face a dilemma reminiscent of Kong’s: either accept a job beneath their qualifications or struggle to make ends meet.
One social media commentator likened their college education to an unreachable pedestal, much like Kong Yiji couldn’t shed his “scholar’s robes.” An essayist went so far as to place the blame on China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for the plight of today’s Kong Yijis, drawing a parallel to another famous tale. “The economy is in a dire state, and unemployment is rampant,” the essay observed. “Instead of forcing Kong Yiji to remove his scholarly attire, why not expose the Emperor’s nakedness?”
Predictably, this essay faced censorship on the Chinese internet. Yet, the widespread empathy towards Kong Yiji hints at a prevailing disenchantment in modern-day China. In the reform era, boundless optimism was a hallmark: tomorrow would perpetually be better than today, and for the most part, it was. With the booming economy and the advent of new technologies, easier international travel, and improved education, life felt freer, even within an oppressive Communist regime. The ruling Communist Party skillfully capitalized on these positive sentiments, solidifying its hold on the country and garnering local support.
However, recent years have brought about reasons for pessimism. China’s economic growth has stagnated, along with the loss of abundant job opportunities and social welfare benefits. Xi’s relentless “zero COVID” measures, imposing strict restrictions on movement and personal liberties for three years, exposed the regime’s capacity for irrationality and brutality. Xi has tightened control over free thought, implementing campaigns to enforce ideological and social conformity strictly, known as Xi Jinping Thought. This has resulted in increased censorship, the suppression of private education, and even restrictions on video game usage.
Determining the true sentiments of the Chinese people towards Xi and his agenda is challenging in the absence of a free press and freedom of speech. However, certain indicators provide insight. For instance, interest in entrepreneurship has waned significantly. Greater confidence in the future usually correlates with a willingness to take the risky leap into starting a business, and not long ago, young Chinese individuals were eager to do so. Incubators sprang up nationwide to accommodate this wave of startups. Unfortunately, that enthusiasm has diminished. Global Entrepreneurship Monitor reports a significant drop in the proportion of Chinese adults engaged in starting new companies, from 15.5% in 2014 to a mere 6% last year.
Furthermore, Chinese nationals are not building families either. According to the government’s figures, the number of births in China nearly halved between 2016 and 2022, reaching a meager 9.6 million, despite a population of over 1.4 billion. Interestingly, this dramatic decline followed the lifting of the draconian one-child policy, which had previously limited urban couples to a single child. Demographics specialist Nicholas Eberstadt from the American Enterprise Institute suggests that this decline in childbirth signifies deep disillusionment with the nation’s bleak future, which can be seen as a vote of no confidence in President Xi Jinping’s rule.
It’s worth noting that China’s birth rates have been low for some time, contributing to the country’s shrinking population. This demographic trend is prevalent across East Asia in countries such as Japan and South Korea. However, Eberstadt believes that the magnitude and speed of China’s decline are unprecedented in times of peace and stability. He struggled to find a comparable decline in modern history, even during China’s Great Leap Forward famine (1958-61) or the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse. Simultaneously, the rate of first marriages in China has dropped by over half since 2013, the year Xi consolidated his power.
Eberstadt suggests that this shift indicates a significant change in mentality—towards pessimism and a lack of confidence in starting families. Rising pessimism may also explain the growing number of Chinese individuals seeking asylum abroad. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, over 116,000 Chinese nationals sought asylum worldwide by the end of 2022, a tenfold increase over the past decade.
When taken together, these statistics depict a society reluctant to invest in an uncertain future. Many Chinese individuals seem to be expressing their discontent through actions—whether it be through their purchasing power, their decisions to delay or avoid starting families, or their desire to leave the country. The best and the brightest might even see themselves reflected in Kong Yiji’s character, symbolizing a sense of apathy or irrelevance.
Regrettably, Xi and his administration have shown little concern, resembling the unsympathetic villagers in Lu Xun’s story. An online post by the Communist Party Youth League and state broadcaster CCTV admonished jobless youth, equating them to Kong Yiji—arrogant and lazy. The post implied that Kong failed due to his refusal to abandon his scholarly identity and labor for change. Xi himself, opposing dependency on welfare, has urged struggling young individuals to learn to endure hardship.
Should the public mood continue to sour, the Communist Party will likely respond with increased repression to assert its authority and enforce its unpopular policies. Xi may also lean further towards nationalist causes, such as Taiwan reunification and controlling the South China Sea, to rally public support, potentially destabilizing the region further.
The official interpretation of Kong Yiji’s story as a parable about scholar arrogance holds significant meaning. However, Lu Xun wrote the story as a critique of Chinese society, where fading traditions and the uncertain future were met with indifference from self-serving leaders and heartless villagers. Ultimately, the people in the tavern forgot about Kong Yiji, presuming he had perished. Will Xi Jinping do the same?
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