Canada is on the cusp of a potential new wave of COVID-19, although the severity is uncertain, according to health experts. After months of relatively low transmission, the virus has mutated and given rise to two variants: EG.5, a subvariant of Omicron, and BA.2.86, which have caught the attention of scientists.
Dr. Fahad Razak, a professor at the University of Toronto and internal medicine physician at St. Michael’s Hospital, noted the recent increase in cases after a significant decline. He stated that this rise was expected as the virus continues to mutate. He also mentioned the seasonality of COVID-19 and the anticipation of case counts rising in the fall and winter.
Dr. Jesse Papenburg, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Montreal Children’s Hospital, echoed similar sentiments regarding the potential surge in cases and the uncertainty around its magnitude.
Highlighting the latest data on COVID-19 in Canada, Dr. Razak warned Canadians to remain vigilant. The federal wastewater data indicated an increase in COVID-19 activity in 10 regions. However, it is important to note that these numbers were updated on August 22nd and contain information up to August 15th.
Several regions, including Bridgewater, St. John’s, and Edmonton, reported increases in COVID-19 activity, while nine regions reported decreases, and 20 regions reported no change in data. In terms of reported new infections, Canada recorded 2,071 cases between August 6th and August 12th. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the case counts are likely underestimated due to changes in reporting since December 2021.
Scientists continue to closely monitor the virus and its variants, specifically the EG.5 subvariant of Omicron and BA.2.86 mutation. The World Health Organization has categorized EG.5 as a “variant of interest” and BA.2.86 as a “variant under monitoring.” Health Canada stated that there have been no detections of the BA.2.86 lineage in Canada so far.
The increase in COVID-19 infections in Canada coincides with a decrease in immune protection and the onset of cooler weather, which leads to more indoor activities. Dr. Razak expressed his expectation of an uptick in cases heading into the fall and winter and suggested that Canada is likely at the beginning of a new wave, the extent of which remains unknown.
Despite an overall decline in COVID-19 activity, new data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) highlights the continued impact of the virus on hospitals. COVID-19 hospitalizations increased by 19% between April 2022 and March 2023, resulting in over 120,000 hospital stays. Emergency department visits related to COVID-19 decreased, with 222,000 visits recorded during the same time frame.
CIHI mentioned that most COVID-19 hospitalizations affected older individuals, with a median age of 75. The length of hospital stays increased from an average of 13 days to 20 days. Additionally, 13% of hospital stays included ICU admissions, and among ICU patients, 39% required ventilation.
As fall approaches and more Canadians return to work in offices, it is crucial to take precautions to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Statistics Canada reported an increase in work commutes compared to the previous year. Some institutions, such as Hollywood film studio Lionsgate and Morris Brown College, have reinstated mask mandates due to rising case numbers.
Dr. Razak advised Canadians to stay updated on vaccinations, wear masks in high-risk settings, and improve building air quality. He mentioned the importance of society moving away from the severe disruptions caused by the pandemic and returning to normalcy.
As for vaccinations, Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended COVID-19 boosters for all Canadians aged five and older in the fall. NACI anticipates that new vaccine formulations, specifically targeting Omicron, will be available. However, any booster available is expected to be effective in reducing infection.
Overall, while Canada faces the potential start of a new wave of COVID-19, the exact magnitude of this wave remains uncertain. Therefore, it is crucial for Canadians to remain cautious and take necessary precautions to protect themselves and others from the virus.
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