CANBERRA, Australia (AP) — will be the first Australian prime minister in seven years to visit China, signifying the improved bilateral relations after a period of strained trade and security disagreements that remain largely unresolved.
The election of Albanese’s center-left government last year, following nine years of conservative rule, created an opportunity for a fresh start. His three-day visit, starting on Saturday, will include stops in Shanghai and Beijing, although details of his itinerary are limited.
Since 2016, when Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with an Australian prime minister twice within six months, China has cut off top-level ministerial contacts. Trade sanctions, both official and unofficial, have accumulated since 2020, costing Australian exporters up to 20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) annually for commodities such as coal, wine, beef, barley, and lobsters. Business and politics have become intertwined in the relationship like never before.
However, many argue that the trade boycott has had negative consequences for an economically troubled China, while Australia has shown no signs of yielding to Beijing’s pressure.
“It’s in Australia’s interest to maintain good relations with China,” stated Albanese when he announced the trip last month.
Yet, the Australian government under Albanese’s leadership is also deepening security ties with the United States, notably through the AUKUS agreement involving Britain, which will provide Australia with a fleet of submarines powered by U.S. nuclear technology.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, highlighted China’s desire to improve trade relations following a “largely ineffective de facto boycott.”
However, Shi noted that some trade barriers still remain, although Australia is optimistic that crippling tariffs on wine will be lifted within a few months. The wine trade was previously valued at AU$1.2 billion ($771 million) per year.
“Australia still has some major behaviors that China surely feels are punishable,” Shi said.
In the eyes of China, Australia’s first significant missteps were made in 2018 when they considered China as a security threat.
The Australian Parliament passed national security legislation that outlawed covert foreign interference in domestic politics and criminalized industrial espionage on behalf of foreign powers. Two months later, the government banned Chinese-owned telecommunications giant Huawei from participating in the development of Australia’s 5G network due to unspecified security concerns.
China responded with trade barriers following Australia’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 and China’s handling of the pandemic. China accused Australia, along with the U.S. and other countries, of “politicizing” the issue.
Albanese insists that he has not made any concessions to China in order to improve relations. He cited the recent release of Australian journalist Cheng Lei, who was detained in China for three years on charges related to state secrets.
However, just before the announcement of his planned trip, Albanese’s government stated that it would not cancel the 99-year lease of the Darwin Port held by a Chinese company, despite U.S. concerns that foreign control could pose a threat to its military forces. Albanese had previously criticized the lease since its signing in 2015, but some security analysts interpreted the decision to let Shandong Landbridge Group retain the lease as a concession to China ahead of his visit.
Australia is striving to strike the right balance between security concerns and the desire for a peaceful region and productive economic ties with China, according to Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“That’s the balance that we’re all cursed with finding,” Blanchett said, drawing a parallel to the positions of Japan and South Korea.
Blanchette suggested that Australia’s increasing discussions on “de-risking,” or reducing dependence on a single country for trade, is likely to be a concern for China during the talks.
“I think what the Australians are going to say is … we still want to maintain a strong trading relationship with you, but we will also be shifting capital and technology to other markets,” he said.
Australia’s efforts to diversify trade away from its largest trading partner, China, have faced challenges. Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell recently announced that negotiations for a free trade deal with the European Union have collapsed.
The impasse remains even as Europe seeks to access Australia’s reserves of critical minerals and rare earths to reduce their reliance on China.
Meanwhile, Farrell expects the cost of what Australia euphemistically refers to as “trade impediments” with China to decrease from a peak of AU$20 billion ($13 billion) per year to AU$1 billion ($643 million).
Despite the political turbulence between Beijing and Canberra since the last state visit by an Australian prime minister, the value of Australian goods and services exported to China has more than doubled, according to James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.
Official Australian government data shows that annual exports for the year up until August were valued at AU$194 billion ($125 billion). In 2016, during the same period, the value was AU$96 billion ($71 billion at the previous exchange rate, $62 billion at the current rate).
Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University, stated that China seeks stable diplomatic relations with Australia to support their economic ties.
“China still hopes that there will be a proper distinction between security and the economy,” Wang said.
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Associated Press writers Ken Moritsugu in Beijing and Christopher Bodeen in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report.
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Find more AP Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific
