President Biden’s envoys are persistently working towards realigning Middle East politics by brokering an establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Despite the significant concessions demanded by the Saudi monarchy, the Biden administration sees serious prospects for an accord.
To advance this vision, President Biden sent his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, back to Saudi Arabia on his second trip in less than three months. The goal is to bring together two historic adversaries and fundamentally reshape the region. One of the challenges is Saudi Arabia’s insistence on American assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program, which involves uranium enrichment. This has long been a concern for officials focused on nonproliferation efforts.
During the recent visit, no breakthrough was announced, but the fact that Sullivan returned to the kingdom so soon after his last trip suggests that progress is being made. The meeting’s summary, as stated in a White House statement, highlighted discussions on bilateral and regional matters and initiatives to promote a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region interconnected with the world.
In a conversation with New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman, President Biden described a potential deal with various moving parts. Resolving any of these complexities could have far-reaching implications. The Saudis are pressing for a NATO-level mutual security pact with the United States, access to advanced American weapons like the THAAD system, and steps towards a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On the other hand, the American side is advocating for a permanent end to the conflict in Yemen, increased aid to Palestinian institutions, and a reduction in Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China. The conditions that Israel would have to agree to are not entirely clear, but suggestions include a permanent commitment to refrain from annexing the West Bank and limitations on future settlements.
Establishing formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a significant victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long sought to normalize Israel’s position in a historically hostile region. The Abraham Accords, brokered by the Trump administration in 2020, laid the foundation for this shift when the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco established formal relations with Israel.
While Saudi Arabia initially resisted joining the accords, they have since shown increasing willingness to make a deal. Informal ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been growing due to shared concerns about Iran’s influence in the region. Incremental changes, such as allowing flights between Israel and other countries to cross Saudi airspace, have demonstrated their evolving relationship.
The Trump administration informed the incoming Biden team that Saudi Arabia was open to joining the Abraham Accords, although initial caution was exercised. However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed greater willingness to establish ties with Israel during Sullivan’s visit in May. This prompted President Biden to make a comprehensive effort, sending Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in June and Sullivan for a return visit.
During Sullivan’s recent visit to Jeddah, he was joined by Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator of Middle East policy, and Amos J. Hochstein, an energy and investment adviser to the president. They held meetings with Prince Mohammed and other Saudi officials. It is worth noting that the CIA attributed responsibility for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi columnist for The Washington Post, to Prince Mohammed. However, President Biden has chosen to prioritize strong ties with Saudi Arabia due to the significance of their energy resources, the Iranian threat, and China’s expanding influence in the region.
In conclusion, President Biden’s envoys are actively pursuing the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, despite the challenges and concessions involved. The Biden administration sees promising prospects for an accord, as evidenced by multiple high-level visits to Saudi Arabia. This potential agreement could reshape Middle East politics and foster greater stability and prosperity in the region.
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