In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, an interesting phenomenon was observed: Joe Biden was performing exceptionally well among voters over the age of 65. Some polls even showed him ahead by a significant margin.
This outcome seemed difficult to explain and believe. Although seniors were disproportionately affected by the pandemic, and Biden himself was an older candidate, it was still surprising to see him winning over older voters. However, when the final results came in and Donald J. Trump performed better than expected, it appeared that Biden’s popularity among older voters wasn’t as significant as initially believed.
Now, three years later, I find myself wondering if there was more to Biden’s success with older voters than met the eye. Perhaps he didn’t win them by a wide margin, but maybe he came close or even secured their support entirely.
My renewed interest stems from the continued accuracy of polling data for the midterms, which still indicates strong support for Biden and Democrats among older voters.
For example, our own Times/Siena polls demonstrated remarkable accuracy, without any overestimation of support for Democrats. These polls revealed that the generic congressional ballot among seniors was evenly split, with both parties receiving 45 percent of support. Additionally, when asked about their voting preference in the 2020 presidential election, the polls showed Biden leading Trump among older voters by 53 percent to 47 percent.
Could Biden have truly performed so well among older voters? Unfortunately, it is challenging to be certain. Post-election studies, such as exit polls and data from firms like Catalist, still indicate that Republicans dominated among older voters in 2022. Furthermore, actual election results don’t provide much additional evidence to clarify the situation, as age segregation among voters isn’t as pronounced as race or education disparities.
However, there is one intriguing data point worth considering: our high-incentive mail study in Wisconsin. To reach a wider range of participants, we offered up to $25 to Wisconsin voters who typically don’t engage in political surveys. Remarkably, the response rate, especially among older Wisconsinites, was notably higher compared to traditional phone surveys.
In this mail survey, Democrats outperformed other major election studies among older voters. For instance, the survey indicated that the Democrat Mandela Barnes had a 12-point lead over Republican incumbent senator Ron Johnson among older registered voters, while the Times/Siena poll showed a narrower three-point lead for Barnes, and other studies leaned further towards the right. Exit polls had Johnson leading by seven points, while AP/VoteCast had him ahead by four points.
Similar disparities were observed when voters were asked to recall their 2020 presidential election votes. In the mail survey, voters over the age of 67 in 2022 (thus, over 65 in 2020) indicated a 17-point lead for Biden over Trump. In contrast, the Times/Siena poll showed a five-point lead for Biden among the same group. Exit polls and VoteCast data also showed Trump winning seniors by a comfortable margin in 2020.
To reiterate, there isn’t much additional evidence to support either version of what occurred among older voters. However, the mail survey in Wisconsin presents intriguing findings. It renews curiosity about the possibility that Democrats may be performing better than commonly believed among older voters.
If this is indeed the case, it would help explain the party’s recent successes in special elections, which often feature older electorates, as well as their performance in the 2021 midterm elections.
Overall, the question remains open, but these findings invite further exploration into the dynamics of older voter preferences and their impact on Democratic outcomes.
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