A year has passed since the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, and it has resulted in a fractured anti-abortion movement. This has significant implications for Republicans. Some groups are urging candidates to move away from extreme positions, such as strict national abortion bans with limited exceptions. They argue that a federal abortion law is currently unrealistic due to a lack of votes in Congress. Instead, they believe Republicans should focus on more moderate stances to win elections and enact anti-abortion policies at the state level.
However, other groups are pushing candidates to embrace even more conservative views and adhere strictly to their anti-abortion agenda. This has created a “circular firing squad” among advocacy groups and candidates who should ideally be united. Patrick Brown, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center, describes this internal conflict within the movement.
For instance, both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former President Trump have faced criticism from the influential nonprofit Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America (SBA) for suggesting that abortion policy should be decided at the state level. SBA insists that any GOP presidential candidate must support a 15-week national abortion ban at the very least. SBA President Marjorie Dannenfelser even called Trump’s stance “morally indefensible.” However, Trump eventually met with the group to clarify his position.
In July, Dannenfelser also criticized DeSantis, accusing him of lacking will and backing away from the fight in an interview with Megyn Kelly. She emphasized the importance of a strong leader not giving up, despite the challenges faced in passing legislation. Meanwhile, there are other groups, like Students for Life, who believe a 15-week ban is too lenient and advocate for stricter six-week or “heartbeat” ban bills at both the state and federal levels.
Despite these divisions, Carol Tobias, president of the group National Right to Life, downplays their significance. She explains that divisions have always existed within the anti-abortion movement, citing past debates on whether to focus on a human life amendment to the Constitution or on state-level efforts. Nevertheless, Tobias believes federal abortion restrictions are unlikely to move forward.
Instead, her organization focuses on advocating for other policies, such as provider conscience protections, codifying the Hyde Amendment, and amending ObamaCare rules to ensure no federal funding for abortion. However, the anti-abortion movement has faced setbacks at the state level, as pro-abortion rights groups have successfully passed ballot measures protecting abortion rights in state constitutions.
Abortion rights also played a pivotal role in the disappointing performance of Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. GOP strategists warn that without a cohesive message, more defeats could be imminent. In Ohio, Republicans recently lost an abortion proxy fight over a ballot measure, and an actual vote to codify abortion into the state constitution is expected in November. Missouri may also face a similar measure, as the state Supreme Court ruled that the attorney general was unlawfully blocking the effort. Furthermore, abortion rights supporters in Arizona have launched a ballot measure initiative for 2024.
Patrick Brown urges pro-lifers to recognize the importance of compromising and adopting more moderate positions to achieve some of their goals. He argues that settling for 60% or 80% of what they want is better than having an ideologically pure position that leads to long-term losses. Jason Cabel Roe, a veteran GOP campaign consultant, echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that intramural disagreements within the anti-abortion movement distract from the goal of persuading swing voters and winning elections.
Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, agrees that a cohesive message is necessary. He believes that promoting a 15-week federal abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother is the winning strategy. He argues that leaving the decision to the states is an ineffective approach that leaves Republicans vulnerable to attacks from Democrats.
All factions within the anti-abortion movement encourage Republicans to take a proactive stance against Democrats on this issue. E.V. Osment, vice president of communications for SBA, emphasizes that Republicans cannot avoid discussing abortion and must present a clear pro-life message. Otherwise, their opponents will exploit their supposed extremism, resulting in electoral losses.
In conclusion, the anti-abortion movement is experiencing internal divisions after the Dobbs decision. Some groups are advocating for more moderate stances to increase their chances of electoral success, while others remain steadfast in their strict anti-abortion positions. This conflict threatens to weaken the movement and hinder its overall effectiveness. However, regardless of their differences, all factions agree that Republicans need to confront the topic of abortion head-on and develop a cohesive message. They believe that compromise and strategic positioning are essential for achieving their objectives in the current political landscape.
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