A groundbreaking research paper released on Thursday has revealed a direct link between Texas’ abortion ban and an increase of 9,799 live births in the state. This study confirms the predictions made by researchers about the impact of the bill when it was passed.
The Texas Legislature passed a bill in September 2021, effectively prohibiting abortions after 5 to 6 weeks of a woman’s last menstrual cycle.
While it is generally expected that abortions will decline and live births will increase following the implementation of anti-abortion measures, the degree of this change is often unclear.
Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have now estimated that approximately 9,800 live births occurred in Texas between April and December 2022 due to the abortion ban. Without the ban, these births would not have taken place.
By employing statistical modeling and analyzing previous live birth data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, researchers determined that there would have been 287,289 live births in Texas during that period if the 2021 ban had not been enforced. However, in reality, 297,088 live births were observed.
Susan Bell, an assistant professor at the Bloomberg School’s Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, emphasized the implications of abortion bans on pregnant individuals, stating, “The study’s findings highlight how abortion bans have real implications for birthing people, thousands of whom may have had no choice but to continue an unwanted or unsafe pregnancy to term.”
These findings come one year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leading to the enactment of total abortion bans in 13 states, many of which do not provide exceptions for cases involving rape or incest.
Texas is among these states and passed a trigger law in 2021 to activate in the event of Roe being overturned. The ban only permits abortions if the life of the mother is at risk.
A group of more than a dozen women are currently suing the Texas state government, claiming that the abortion ban endangered their lives by preventing them from accessing abortion until their health declined to a critical state.
It should be noted that the study’s results are limited to Texas and cannot be generalized to other states.
Alison Gemmill, an assistant professor at the Bloomberg School’s Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, stated, “Although our study does not uncover the exact reasons behind these additional births, our findings strongly suggest that a significant number of pregnant individuals in Texas faced insurmountable barriers to abortion access.”
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