On Monday, forecasters predicted an ordinary tropical storm for Mexico’s west coast. However, an unprecedented intensification transformed it into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Acapulco, a city of one million people, is directly in its path.
The National Hurricane Center described the situation as a “nightmare scenario” for southern Mexico. Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph in the morning to a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds in the evening. The hurricane is expected to cause “catastrophic damage” near its center, including a life-threatening storm surge, tornado-like winds, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and mudslides.
The area has never experienced a hurricane of this magnitude before. The Hurricane Center warned of widespread destruction, including total roof failure, wall collapse, power outages lasting weeks or possibly months, and uninhabitable conditions for weeks or months.
Scientists attribute the extreme intensification of storms like Otis to human-caused climate change. Warm ocean waters contribute to the rapid strengthening of hurricanes. Recent studies have shown an increase in the rapid intensification of Atlantic storms.
Hurricane warnings have been issued along the west coast of Mexico, including Acapulco, where the area has little experience dealing with such powerful hurricanes. The rapid intensification of storms like Otis makes it difficult for governments and emergency management to prepare and respond in time.
Meteorologists were shocked by Otis’s sudden strengthening, as computer models failed to predict it accurately. Rapid intensification remains a challenge for forecasters, especially for compact storms like Otis.
Otis resembles the 2015 Hurricane Patricia, which also underwent extreme rapid intensification off Mexico’s west coast. However, Patricia weakened before making landfall. This is the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to hit Mexico’s west coast this month, following Lidia, Max, and Norma.
