NATO’s announcement on Tuesday regarding Ukraine’s potential membership in the alliance was met with disappointment from Ukraine’s president, reflecting President Biden’s and other leaders’ determination not to be directly involved in Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. The communiqué agreed upon by all NATO nations stated that Ukraine’s future lies in NATO, but there were no specific details or timeline provided. NATO pledged to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia and conducting periodic reviews of Ukraine’s progress in meeting NATO standards in terms of democratization and military integration.
This wording signifies that President Biden and like-minded allies succeeded in their stance against Poland and the Baltic nations, who wanted an immediate invitation for Ukraine to join NATO once the war ends. The compromise document was released at a summit meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, anticipating the communiqué’s contents, criticized NATO’s leadership on Twitter before attending the meeting.
Compared to NATO’s vague 2008 statement about eventually admitting Georgia and Ukraine, this commitment goes a step further. However, due to Ukraine’s fragile democracy, corruption, and outdated Soviet arsenal, the prospect of membership remains uncertain. Instead, NATO leaders offered Ukraine increased military aid, promises of integration, and declarations challenging President Putin’s strategy of weakening European nations. The communiqué acknowledges that Ukraine has made progress toward meeting NATO’s political and military standards.
President Zelensky will engage in discussions with NATO leaders and participate in the first NATO-Ukraine Council, aiming to integrate the country into alliance conversations despite its non-voting status. However, what Ukraine truly desires, and what President Biden and Germany are hesitant to provide, is the main benefit of full membership: collective defense. Ukraine wants the assurance that an attack on any NATO member will be treated as an attack on all members. President Biden has clearly expressed his reluctance to engage in direct combat with Russian forces, as it could escalate into World War III.
President Zelensky had threatened to boycott the meeting if he was dissatisfied with NATO’s commitment. He and his top aides argue that Ukraine’s entry into NATO might have deterred President Putin from invading and risking a war with the Western alliance. Historians and geostrategists will debate this hypothetical scenario for years to come. However, based on the released communiqué, President Biden seems to have achieved two of his primary goals for this summit.
Thanks to concessions from Sweden and the assistance of Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, President Biden successfully convinced Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to lift his blockade on Sweden’s membership, which requires unanimous consent. Additionally, with the language adopted in Vilnius, no specific date or conditions are set for Ukraine’s membership. The closest the statement comes to a commitment is the affirmation that an invitation will be extended to Ukraine when allies agree and conditions are met.
As a significant concession, NATO agreed that Ukraine would not need to undergo a preliminary process to prepare for an invitation, similar to Sweden and Finland, who joined without undertaking such a process. Moscow has been closely monitoring the summit, with Kremlin officials stating that new weapons for Ukraine would prompt countermeasures and criticizing Turkey for allowing Sweden to join NATO. Russia intends to assess NATO’s expansion into territories like Finland and Sweden and respond accordingly.
The dispute within NATO over the communiqué originates from deep-rooted divisions. The United States, Germany, and other less vocal allies are committed to the open-door policy of NATO but are cautious about setting a concrete timeline or automaticity. On the other hand, countries in close proximity to Russia strongly advocate for turning the vague commitment made in Bucharest in 2008 into a more tangible one. However, with the ongoing war, the possibility of postponing Ukrainian membership is fading. The NATO alliance intended for the Vilnius summit to showcase trans-Atlantic unity, and it largely achieved that goal.
NATO allies arrived in Vilnius with additional commitments to provide weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine’s slow counteroffensive. France will supply long-range “Scalp” cruise missiles, and Germany and Norway have pledged significant financial assistance. Denmark and the Netherlands will coordinate training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. President Biden had previously agreed to provide F-16s to Ukraine, although the delivery may occur next year.
The communiqué also includes extensive references to nuclear weapons, warning Russia of severe consequences if they are used in the war. NATO’s leaders made a promise to modernize the nuclear forces of the United States, Britain, and France. Russian officials have hinted several times that nuclear weapons might be employed in Ukraine, and there have been recent deployments in Belarus. The communiqué condemned Russia’s nuclear rhetoric and coercive signaling.
Furthermore, the communiqué dedicates significant sections to the threats posed by China. Although the wording is milder compared to references to Russia, it recognizes China as a long-term danger. This acknowledgment is noteworthy because, in previous years, NATO primarily focused on European security and gave little thought to China. The communiqué highlights China’s efforts to control critical sectors, infrastructure, and supply chains while subverting the rules-based international order in various domains.
In sum, the communiqué demonstrates NATO’s perception of the world entering an era of confrontation as complex as the Cold War, with both Russia and China posing significant challenges. The NATO alliance aimed to emphasize trans-Atlantic unity at the Vilnius summit, and the agreements and discussions reflect progress in that regard.
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