A brief uprising led by a defiant Russian mercenary commander recently came to an end as his troops retreated. However, the implications of this challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s rule and the ongoing war in Ukraine could have long-lasting effects. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to the current situation in Russia as an “unfolding story,” emphasizing that there is more to come. While the details of the rebel commander’s whereabouts remain unknown, intelligence agencies are actively monitoring his movements.
On Sunday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, was set to depart for Belarus under a deal arranged with the Kremlin. As part of the agreement, both Prigozhin and his troops would receive pardons and have any criminal charges dropped against them. Blinken confirmed that they are closely tracking Prigozhin’s location, but did not provide specific details.
Over the course of the weekend, the Wagner troops vacated Rostov, a significant Russian military stronghold they had commandeered. By Sunday afternoon, the troops had fully withdrawn from the capital, leading to a sense of relief and normalcy among the local population. Roads that were previously torn up in panic were swiftly repaired, and roadblocks and checkpoints were dismantled. However, Red Square remained closed to visitors.
In a televised address on Saturday, Putin called for unity and accused Prigozhin of treason, without explicitly mentioning him by name. Analysts noted that this latest incident, which saw forces formerly aligned with Putin marching towards Moscow under Prigozhin’s command, exposed further weaknesses in the Russian leader’s control. It also resulted in a diversion of critical forces from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including Prigozhin’s Wagner troops and Chechen soldiers deployed to stop them. These forces managed to advance towards Moscow with minimal resistance, reportedly downing multiple helicopters and a military communications plane along the way. The Ministry of Defense has yet to comment on these reports.
The rebellion was ultimately halted by a deal that involved sending Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that charges against Prigozhin for leading an armed rebellion would be dropped, and he subsequently ordered his troops to return to their field camps. The government also assured that it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who participated in the uprising, while those who did not join would be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry.
While Putin had previously vowed to punish those responsible for the armed uprising, Peskov defended the decision to reverse this stance, arguing that Putin’s “highest goal” was to prevent bloodshed and internal conflict. This amnesty contrasts sharply with the harsh fines and jail sentences imposed by Russian authorities on thousands of individuals who have criticized the war, even indirectly. Although this resolution resolved the immediate crisis, analysts and observers speculate that it may have set the stage for longer-term consequences.
“For a dictatorship built on the idea of unchallenged power, this was an extreme humiliation, and it’s hard to see the genie of doubt ever being forced back into the bottle,” remarked Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “So, while Prigozhin may have suffered a short-term defeat, Putin is likely to be the long-term loser.”
Blinken echoed this sentiment during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” suggesting that the challenge to Putin came from within. He asserted that more cracks are appearing in Russia’s facade, and Putin will need to address new questions that have arisen in the wake of recent events. Prigozhin, who had been providing regular updates throughout his revolt, has gone silent since the Kremlin announced the deal. It remains unclear whether he has already arrived in Belarus or if any of his Wagner troops plan to follow him.
Footage captured in Rostov-on-Don shows locals cheering as Wagner troops depart the area. Some even rushed to shake hands with Prigozhin, who was traveling in an SUV. The regional governor later confirmed that all troops had left the city. Russian news agencies also reported that Wagner forces had left the Lipetsk region, which lies on the road from Rostov to Moscow. In anticipation of the Wagner forces’ arrival, Moscow had established checkpoints manned by armed troops and armored vehicles along its southern perimeter. Around 3,000 Chechen soldiers were swiftly redeployed from Ukraine to Moscow early on Saturday, according to state television in Chechnya. Russian troops armed with machine guns set up additional checkpoints on the outskirts of Moscow, while road crews dug up sections of highways to impede the march.
State-controlled television stations portrayed the resolution of the crisis as a demonstration of Putin’s wisdom, airing footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of local residents who had feared a violent battle for control of the city. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, however, cautioned that “the Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium.” They view the deal as a temporary fix rather than a long-term solution. The institute, which has closely monitored the war in Ukraine from its inception, argues that the rebellion exposed fault lines within the Russian government.
Prigozhin’s uprising may have been driven by his demand for the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom he had heavily criticized for his handling of the war in Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies had been tracking Prigozhin’s accumulation of forces near the Russian border for some time, contradicting his claim that the rebellion was a response to an attack on his camps in Ukraine by the Russian military. At the start of the rebellion, Prigozhin accused Russian forces, including General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, of launching rockets, using helicopter gunships, and employing artillery against the Wagner camps. He alleged that Gerasimov ordered these attacks following a meeting with Shoigu, during which they decided to eliminate the military contractor. The Defense Ministry denied these allegations.
Last week, Congressional leaders were briefed on the Wagner buildup, according to an anonymous source familiar with the matter. The U.S. intelligence briefing was first reported by CNN. Potential motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion stems from the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, backed by Putin, that private companies sign contracts with them by July 1. Prigozhin had adamantly refused to comply with this directive.
These political developments in Russia have given hope to Ukrainians, who anticipate potential opportunities for their army to reclaim territories seized by Russian forces. Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, stated, “These events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military.”
Wagner troops have played a pivotal role in the Ukraine war, most notably capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, where some of the fiercest and longest battles have taken place. The amnesty offered to Prigozhin was negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which could potentially enhance his relationship with Putin. Prigozhin, a 62-year-old former convict, has longstanding ties to Putin and has secured lucrative catering contracts with the Kremlin, earning him the moniker “Putin’s chef.” The Wagner group has deployed military contractors to Libya, Syria, various African countries, and Ukraine.
Overall, the recent events surrounding the uprising led by Prigozhin have shaken Putin’s hold on power and the ongoing war in Ukraine. While the immediate crisis has been resolved, the impact of these events is likely to be felt in the long run. The dynamic and unstable situation in Russia demands a careful examination of its implications and how Putin plans to address emerging challenges in the coming weeks and months.
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