In his impressive 25-year career as a general manager, Brian Cashman has never been forced to fire a coach mid-season. However, the offensive struggles that the Yankees have faced over the past five weeks have raised concerns and created a crisis that Cashman has never quite experienced before. Without the presence of Aaron Judge, the lineup has become significantly weaker, and the team’s season is now at risk. Understandably, the Yankees are considering making changes to address this issue, which inevitably includes discussions about hitting coach Dillon Lawson.
As of June 21, when asked about the overall hitting performance of the Yankees and Lawson’s job security, Cashman defended the hitting coach and emphasized the organization’s approach to offense, stating that they prioritize a holistic “ecosystem” and a consistent instructional framework throughout the system. Cashman believes that success or failure should not fall solely on one individual. However, the team’s recent offensive struggles have raised concerns among the organization, leading them to seriously consider making changes in order to revitalize the feeble attack. As the first half of the season concludes and the draft approaches, Cashman will have the opportunity to reflect on important matters with his team in Tampa during the All-Star break.
Currently en route to Tampa, Cashman refrained from commenting on the status of any coaching staff members. However, if Cashman decides to deviate from his previous stance on firing coaches mid-season, hitting coach Dillon Lawson’s job could be at stake.
During his defense of Lawson on June 21, Cashman highlighted that the hitting coach and his assistant, Casey Dykes, were responsible for the team’s strong offensive performance in 2022 when the Yankees averaged 4.98 runs per game, ranking second in the league. However, it’s important to note that this success was largely due to Aaron Judge’s exceptional performance. In the second half of that season, Judge’s performance was even more dominant, and the rest of the team struggled to replicate his success. Despite this, no significant changes were made to the lineup during the offseason. While Andrew Benintendi and Matt Carpenter departed in free agency, neither player has performed well in 2023. Judge, on the other hand, was retained on a lucrative nine-year, $360 million contract and continued to mask the team’s offensive deficiencies until his injury on June 3.
Since Judge’s injury, the Yankees’ offense has been abysmal. As of Friday, their .230 batting average was tied with the Royals for the second-worst in the league, and their 4.38 runs per game ranked 19th. Despite a league-wide increase in on-base percentage, the Yankees’ .299 on-base percentage is the worst they have seen since 1968. However, it is the period since June 4 that has witnessed a significant downturn in offensive production. Without Judge, the Yankees have the lowest batting average (.214), on-base percentage (.284), and second-fewest runs scored (107) in the league. As a result, they have gone 13-16 during this period.
Critics of Lawson argue that the team’s offensive struggles primarily stem from underperforming veterans who should be able to correct their own flaws or seek advice from external hitting experts. If DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo had performed at an average level during this period, the Yankees’ offense would not be in such dire straits. However, statistical analysis reveals that among players with at least 80 plate appearances from June 4 to Friday, LeMahieu ranked fourth-worst in OPS (.472), Stanton ranked sixth-worst (.495), Rizzo ranked twelfth-worst (.529), and Josh Donaldson had a batting average of .130.
Under Lawson’s guidance, the overall offensive performance of the Yankees remains poor, as evidenced by the severe regression of Oswaldo Cabrera. In contrast, one of the team’s strongest hitters during the Judge-less period has been Anthony Volpe (.838 OPS), who improved his performance through studying tape with Yankees Double-A catcher Austin Wells rather than working with a Yankees hitting instructor.
Cashman has a long-standing preference for not replacing managers or coaches during the season. Furthermore, the team’s commitment to a specific offensive philosophy, focused on hitting home runs, further complicates the decision-making process. Consequently, finding a suitable replacement for Lawson, Dykes, or first-year hitting assistant Brad Wilkerson is not easy. The hitters have generally enjoyed working with assistant Hensley Meulens in the past, but Meulens left to become Colorado’s hitting coach. Thus, there is currently no obvious replacement option.
Nevertheless, it is difficult to ignore the Yankees’ overall struggle to elevate the performance of their hitters, particularly compared to their success with pitchers, especially relievers. Despite Cashman’s belief in the effectiveness of their coaching staff, recent offensive statistics suggest otherwise. The Yankees are now faced with the question of whether the recent offensive slump is enough to prompt Cashman to take unprecedented action and make the difficult decision to replace Lawson, Dykes, or Wilkerson mid-season.
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