This year in Canada, the month of September holds significance for two reasons. First, there is mounting pressure on the Toronto Blue Jays as they strive to secure a wild card spot for the MLB postseason. Second, economists are analyzing data to update their forecasts on the potential decline in the economy. According to Statistics Canada’s report on real gross domestic product, the Canadian economy has experienced a slowdown. Surprisingly, GDP contracted in the second quarter of the year, catching most economists and forecasters off guard who had expected a decline later in the fall.
Interestingly, the cooling down of Canada’s economy coincides with the Toronto Blue Jays’ race for a playoff berth. As of September 1st, the Blue Jays’ chances of making the playoffs were just below 50-50 at 44%, according to FanGraphs, an analytics website. Their odds of winning the World Series were a mere 2.4%, indicating long odds. However, recent injuries to key players like shortstop Bo Bichette and a lackluster offense have hindered their progress as other teams compete for the coveted wild card spots.
For the Blue Jays, this means a critical period of games in September that could determine whether the city of Toronto and the entire country have a team in the postseason this year. As Canadians face pressure from high interest rates and financial uncertainties due to the slowing economy, the question arises: Can spending on playoff tickets, travel, and other experiences associated with the postseason help boost the economy?
Economists interviewed by Global News are skeptical that a Blue Jays playoff run alone will be enough to prevent a potential recession. However, a hypothetical postseason bid could provide a welcome boost to businesses if Canadians choose to dip into their savings for this once-in-a-generation opportunity.
This idea that the Blue Jays could have an impact on Canada’s economy is not far-fetched. Last year, Statistics Canada’s GDP report highlighted that the arts and entertainment sectors experienced a surge in October, driven by a 4.7% monthly increase attributed to spectator sports, specifically the Blue Jays’ postseason games. For businesses reliant on the Blue Jays to attract customers, a playoff run would be a blessing, especially considering the anticipated economic slowdown in the fall.
Greg Taylor, the president and CEO of Steam Whistle Brewing, describes how their brewery, located steps away from the Rogers Centre in downtown Toronto, benefits from the influx of Blue Jays fans on game days. Approximately 80% of their business is tied to tourism, with Canadian fans from outside Toronto and American tourists traveling to watch their respective teams play against the Jays. While Taylor acknowledges recent positive developments, such as Toronto allowing outdoor drinking in some parks, he emphasizes the need for a boost in the beer industry, which is still recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, any increase in foot traffic around the Rogers Centre in October would greatly benefit their business.
However, the question arises as to whether fans will have the financial means to spend on the Jays. TD Bank’s recent report on credit and debit card spending indicates that expenditures have remained relatively flat in the past three months due to higher interest rates deterring credit card spending. The report also highlights that while spending on durable goods is slowing down, consumers continue to spend on services and experiences. However, this category’s growth might be affected by price pressures in the fall.
Chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, Pedro Antunes, expects consumer spending to remain flat in the coming quarters. Nevertheless, he believes certain industries, such as travel, tourism, arts, and entertainment, will continue to benefit from the persisting demand for experiences in the post-pandemic recovery.
The Blue Jays organization recognizes that fans may have limitations on their spending. This year, they introduced $20 all-inclusive ticket pricing for general admission to the new outfield districts, aiming to provide fans with an affordable and unique ballpark experience. Despite these efforts, it remains to be seen how the organization will structure ticket offers for the hypothetical 2023 postseason. However, they are committed to offering value-centric options in line with fans’ needs.
Moshe Lander, a professor specializing in sports economics, envisions a scenario where a playoff spot for the Blue Jays could persuade Canadians to dip into their savings or use credit cards to attend the games. This could lead to a temporary boost in economic activity in the third or fourth quarter of the year. However, Lander argues that in the long run, the GDP boost from a team’s playoff run is short-lived. He highlights that persistent inflation and the Bank of Canada’s tightening of interest rates will eventually halt the surge in spending demand witnessed during the recovery from the pandemic. Ultimately, the consequences of this spending will have to be faced at some point.
Lander also points out that when Canadians choose to spend their money on Jays tickets and concessions at the Rogers Centre, they often forego other forms of entertainment, such as dining out in local restaurants. While tourism dollars from international travelers can benefit the economy, when Canadians from cities like Montreal or Vancouver travel to Toronto for Jays games, local spending in their own cities might decrease.
In conclusion, while a Blue Jays playoff run could have some positive effects on the Canadian economy, it is unlikely to be a complete solution to the country’s economic woes. It may provide a temporary boost to certain industries, such as tourism and entertainment, but the long-term impact is limited. Canadians should enjoy the excitement of a potential postseason, but it is important to remain mindful of the broader economic challenges the country faces.
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