What’s ahead for winter forecast? El Nino returns in new outlook
AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, looks ahead to the upcoming winter season and the potential impacts of how El Niño can affect the forecast.
The nation’s first significant snowstorm of the season is forecast to hit lightly populated portions of the northern U.S. starting Tuesday and lasting into Thursday. Forecasters said the storm will first impact parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies before shifting into the northern Plains over the next couple of days.
The storm will affect at least a half-dozen states and could lead to significant travel disruptions, AccuWeather said, which added that “near-blizzard conditions” are possible. The National Weather Service said that up to 2 feet of snow could fall in some areas.
“Time should be taken early this week to prepare by unpacking winter gear like shovels, coats, hats and gloves,” advised AccuWeather meteorologist Joseph Bauer. “It can be a good idea to start up snow removal equipment like snow blowers to ensure they function properly.”
Winter storm warnings in place
Winter storm warnings and watches were in effect Tuesday for portions of the Cascades and northern Rockies as the storm approached.
Warning of “some some disruptions to daily life,” the weather service office in Great Falls, Montana, said “travel could be very difficult to impossible and tire chains may be required for some vehicles. Those in the backcountry should ensure they have appropriate knowledge and gear and may want to consider alternate plans.”
Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said “roads may become snow-covered and slippery by later Tuesday in the Cascades and northern Rockies, then into the northern high Plains Wednesday into Thursday.”
Bauer said that “gusty winds on Thursday can lead to blizzard-like conditions across the Dakotas, with blowing and drifting snow, along with reduced visibility.”
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What is a blizzard?
A blizzard is characterized by heavy snowfall and high winds – conditions that make for extremely low visibility. Specifically, the weather service defines a blizzard as blowing or falling snow with winds of at least 35 mph, which reduces visibility to a quarter of a mile or less for at least three hours.
As of midday Tuesday, roughly 2.5 million people live where some level of winter weather alert is in place for the storm, the weather service said. States impacted include Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota.
