College Football Picks: Kentucky vs Florida | Troy vs Georgia State | Iowa State vs Oklahoma
Kentucky vs Florida
Florida may look impressive, but their recent win over Tennessee, a team I’m not too high on, has inflated their value in the market. Additionally, their loss to Utah looks worse now due to the Utes’ struggling offense. On the other hand, Kentucky has a promising team. With their first signature victory of the 2023 season within reach, their defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops leads a strong defense, complemented by an upgraded quarterback in Devin Leary and a well-experienced offense. Returning guard Kenneth Horsey also adds a boost to their offensive line. Kentucky’s elite run defense should force mistakes from Graham Mertz, who tends to make errors in hostile environments. Furthermore, Kentucky’s explosive plays can exploit Florida’s vulnerable defense. In terms of explosiveness allowed, Florida ranks 133rd nationally. So, our pick for this game is Kentucky -1.
Troy vs Georgia State
It’s time to take advantage of the overvalued 4-0 Georgia State team. Their record may seem impressive, but their wins have come against teams with only one FBS victory combined. This matchup also does not favor Georgia State, as their rush-heavy offense, led by dual-action quarterback Darren Grainger, will struggle against the dominant Troy rush defense. While Troy only won by three points against Western Kentucky last week, they significantly outgained their opponents by nearly 250 yards. This presents an excellent opportunity to bet on Troy, as they are performing well in a favorable matchup.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma
The Sooners are currently overvalued. While they managed to beat Cincinnati by 14 points, the Bearcats struggled to score despite having multiple opportunities. Oklahoma’s other victories against SMU, Arkansas State, and Tulsa were also unconvincing. In contrast, Iowa State has overcome off-the-field issues and is finding stability in their gameplay. Quarterback Rocco Becht showcased his talent in their recent win against Oklahoma State, throwing for 350 yards and three touchdowns. The Cyclones should cover the large point spread against an overrated Sooners team, especially considering that head coach Matt Campbell has a strong history of covering as a double-digit underdog.
Last Week’s Record: 2-0-1
Overall Record for the 2023 Season: 8-3-1
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