Amid widespread distrust in institutions, Americans still maintain faith in juries and their ability to serve justice. According to a recent survey, almost 60% of Americans have at least some trust in juries, surpassing trust in any other group within the judicial system. However, this trust may soon be tested as former President Donald J. Trump faces multiple trials in the coming year.
Concerning Mr. Trump’s upcoming trials, a majority of Americans, including Democrats, Republicans, and independents, doubt the courts’ ability to select impartial jurors. The potential jurors will undoubtedly face intense scrutiny, which may deter many from wanting to serve. In fact, most Americans have expressed a lack of personal interest in serving on a jury for Mr. Trump.
A study conducted by polling firm Ipsos in July focused on Americans who have previously served on a jury, providing insights into the characteristics and opinions of potential jurors who may decide Mr. Trump’s fate. The study revealed that jurors are more likely than the general public to trust various actors within the criminal justice system, including judges, attorneys, nonlegal staff, and law enforcement.
Notably, demographics of former jurors differ from the general population, with the former being older, wealthier, and more educated. The majority of jurors are over 50 years old, compared to less than half of the general public. Additionally, former jurors tend to lean slightly more Democratic, and men are more likely than women to have served. However, the elevated levels of trust in the judicial system displayed by former jurors primarily result from their experience within the system rather than their demographic differences.
Former jurors exhibit 20% more trust in defense attorneys compared to the general public, while their trust in prosecuting attorneys, such as district or state attorneys, is 30% higher. They also have a greater trust in judges, although a partisan gap emerges when it comes to trust in Supreme Court justices, with Republicans expressing more trust than Democrats. However, this partisan divide is less pronounced among jurors and the general public when it comes to trust in state and federal judges.
“The Jury: Trial and Error in the American Courtroom,” a book written by Steven Adler, a former editor in chief of Reuters and legal reporter who collaborated on the Ipsos study, highlights that jury service fosters a more positive view of the system. Adler states that serving on a jury provides individuals with a firsthand experience of the seriousness and focus exhibited within the judicial process, thus improving their perception of all participants, including judges.
Although 58% of Americans trust juries, 71% lack confidence in the courts’ ability to find jurors who can set aside their prior beliefs about Donald Trump and decide the case based solely on the presented evidence. When it comes to perceived treatment of different groups within the justice system, 71% of Americans believe that current or former elected officials receive special privileges. This sentiment is shared similarly by Democrats and Republicans. Moreover, jurors are even more likely than non-jurors to believe that officials receive preferential treatment. The only group perceived to receive more special treatment by the general public is wealthy people.
Mr. Trump’s upcoming trials will draw jurors from locations where the cases were filed, presenting potential challenges based on the jury pool’s composition. For example, the case in Georgia will involve jurors from left-leaning Fulton County, while the federal case over the events of January 6, 2021, will occur in liberal Washington. The hush money case involving Stormy Daniels will take place in the predominantly Democratic Manhattan. On the other hand, the classified documents case is expected to be held in Fort Pierce, Florida, and will likely have a jury drawn from surrounding counties that Mr. Trump won in 2020.
Given the high stakes, prosecutors and defense attorneys will be extremely cautious during jury selection. Prosecutors will require a unanimous verdict to succeed, while Mr. Trump would only need one holdout to secure a mistrial.
It is worth noting that political views are not disqualifying for potential jurors. The law mandates fairness and impartiality rather than complete ignorance of the case.
There is a division among Americans regarding their interest in serving on any of the Trump juries. Slightly over 50% state that they are not personally interested in serving, with little distinction along partisan lines. Prior jury service does not significantly increase expectations of a fair trial for Mr. Trump, but former jurors express a greater willingness to serve on one of his trials, as slightly over half of them would be interested in doing so.
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