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The writer is chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee
To have a meaningful debate on UK net zero policies, it is crucial to ground the discussion in scientific reality. The reality is that the world will continue to heat up, and extreme climate events will worsen until every country and sector achieves net zero emissions. Net zero is not just a catchy phrase, but an absolute necessity.
The evidence-based approach that the UK has taken towards policy-making has played a key role in garnering strong cross-party support for net zero measures. As a climate scientist and member of the Climate Change Committee since 2018, I am proud to have witnessed successive governments, regardless of their political affiliations, following our advice in setting legislated climate targets. These targets include reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and implementing five-year emission reduction targets until 2035.
While analyzing how we can achieve these targets and maximize the advantages of the transition, we must also consider the distribution of costs and benefits. These considerations involve both scientific analysis and political deliberation, and I welcome the ongoing debate.
Our recent progress report indicates that renewable energy deployment and electric vehicle sales are generally on track. However, the pace of rollout in other sectors needs to quadruple in order to meet the targets from 2030 onwards.
Therefore, it is concerning to see measures that undermine incentives for innovation and investment in net zero. The government’s decision to make a technical change to the Emissions Trading Scheme, contrary to our advice, has gone largely unnoticed amidst the recent political focus on green policies. By increasing the number of credits in the scheme, the UK has significantly decreased carbon prices to below EU levels. This could potentially hinder the rate of UK industrial decarbonization and future trade with the EU.
Scaling up efforts towards net zero heavily relies on private sector investment. Businesses emphasize the importance of consistency in policies and firm deadlines to attract investment. Many are already eager to lead in the transition. For instance, the UK has the potential to become a global leader in low-carbon footprint batteries and carbon capture and storage technologies.
The private sector also plays a crucial role in reducing costs for households and consumers. This is a key aspect of our committee’s analysis on feasible pathways to achieving the targets. Innovations in electric vehicle technologies have led to falling prices, making them more cost-effective than petrol and diesel vehicles over their lifespan. Delaying the ban on petrol and diesel cars by five years would result in over £6 billion in additional household costs.
In the past, my committee has reviewed the evidence concerning additional oil and gas licensing in the North Sea. The net impact of these licenses on global emissions is uncertain, and UK production emissions are marginally lower compared to many other countries. However, without strong international regulations, increased UK production could contribute to rising global demand. Therefore, it is crucial to adopt a evidence-led approach, which includes stringent net zero tests for new production, limits on gas flaring, and greater electrification of North Sea platforms. Given the government’s decision to proceed with North Sea licenses, it is imperative that we prioritize these measures. Failing to do so could have significant implications for Britain’s international leadership on climate change.
This is not the time to lose the well-informed political consensus on addressing climate change in the UK. As a climate scientist, I can affirm that a rapid transition to renewable energy, along with action on methane leaks from fossil fuel production and agriculture, can immediately reduce the rate of global warming. This should be a shared goal. By achieving our targets, we can provide a model for other developed economies. We must not accept escalating climate damage as the new normal.
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