At the onset of spring 2020, the coronavirus ravaged the world, leading to the drastic disappearance of air travel. Airlines operated nearly empty “ghost flights” solely to preserve airport slots, while airport terminals remained eerily abandoned. Strikingly, as aviation vanished from our skies, the carbon emissions fueling global warming dropped by over half of 2019 levels.
As the pandemic endured, virtual conferences and Zoom meetings became the new norm for professionals, and families opted for road trips over long-distance flights. This shift in transportation raised the question among climate experts and activists of whether Americans would permanently change the way they travel for both work and leisure.
Now, 3.5 years later, the love for flying among Americans has experienced a complete resurgence. Recent data from the Transportation Security Administration showed 75.5 million passengers passing through U.S. airports, surpassing the 72 million travelers in October 2019. The TSA projects that 30 million passengers will journey during the Thanksgiving holiday period alone. On a global scale, the International Civil Aviation Organization anticipates 2023’s passenger demand to exceed that of 2019 by approximately 3 percent.
According to experts, the urge to uphold connections with distant family and friends, coupled with the relative convenience of air travel, significantly contributes to the enduring appeal of flying. However, this aviation renaissance is accompanied by the fading hope of a long-term reduction in flying emissions, at least until technological advancements emerge.
Although some aspects of flying have not fully resurfaced, such as business travel, which remains below pre-pandemic levels, leisure travel has compensated for the void created by virtual meetings. Notably, this echoes past trends where leisure travel rebounded swiftly after historical shocks like the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis, while business travel lagged behind.
Flying accounts for around 2.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and 3.5 percent of human-induced warming each year due to its impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere. With projections indicating that aviation emissions may triple by 2050, achieving net-zero emissions in the aircraft sector by this time is increasingly challenging.
Environmental advocates and some climate scientists have championed efforts to curtail flying to mitigate individual carbon footprints. However, in the absence of easily accessible alternatives, particularly in the United States, the prospect of achieving net-zero aviation emissions becomes even more daunting.
Furthermore, swift policy interventions will be indispensable in curbing emissions as the return to air travel accelerates as projected.
– – –
Kevin Crowe contributed to this report.
Related Content
The final hours of Rosalynn Carter’s life, in the town where it began
Each generation is defined by its movies. Here are 57 that shaped me.
Why is Buc-ee’s so loved? We went Beaver Nugget shopping to find out.
