A prime minister without a clear plan for the UK’s largest infrastructure project, HS2, raises doubts about the government’s ability to meet significant challenges. Rishi Sunak’s indecision undermines public and business confidence in the government’s expertise and funding ability.
The chaos within No 10 before the Tory conference was evident when Transport Secretary Mark Harper failed to answer basic questions about HS2 plans on BBC radio. Harper, despite his understanding of the project, cannot provide information on the route due to ongoing disagreements between Sunak and his advisors.
From the start, the high-speed rail link from London to Manchester with a spur to Leeds was complex and costly, crossing congested areas and requiring expensive tunnelling. The Treasury was skeptical about the project from the beginning.
The public had every right to expect thorough assessments to identify potential pitfalls and control expenses, considering the history of mismanagement in major government projects. However, it has now been revealed that the government was overly optimistic or influenced by biased assessments from project implementers. Sunak aims to introduce a revised plan that could reduce HS2 to a shuttle service between London and Birmingham.
Such a limited version of the project would perpetuate regional inequality, separating the north and south of the country. Moreover, it would harm the railway and engineering industry in the UK and undermine the nation’s credibility in constructing major infrastructure.
While the Jubilee and Elizabeth lines in London have been successful, both exceeded their budgets and faced delays. Worse examples of cost overruns include the Scottish parliament and the Edinburgh tram. Additionally, substantial spending on nuclear power stations in the regions is expected to result in significant delays and budget overruns, with risks held by private companies.
One common factor in these projects is their unique and non-modular design. The stations on the tube lines and the Scottish parliament building differ significantly from other structures. This deviates from the golden rule of project management, which suggests that previous experiences should guide new projects. High-speed rail is an exception to this rule.
For comparison, the Madrid metro completed 81 miles of track and 76 stations in eight years, without architect-designed stations, at half the cost and time of the UK’s average. UK engineering firms were involved in the project’s construction. Spain’s low-cost high-speed train network faced skepticism initially but has since proven successful.
Thus, HS2 should still be built as a high-speed line. Engineering-wise, it is feasible, even if it requires constructing additional lines under Euston. Treasury interference in the design phase has contributed to cost increases. The government can negotiate with Manchester mayor Andy Burnham regarding a new station and explore options for an HS3 link spanning Liverpool, Leeds, and Hull.
While it is valid to pause and evaluate the recent cost escalations due to the pandemic, Sunak’s commitment to the project should not waver. His indecisiveness opens the door for stakeholders to extract concessions, undermining the project’s viability. Making a steadfast commitment is crucial for the success of mega-projects.
Similar challenges have been faced by Germany and the US. Germany’s railways suffer from delays and disagreements between regional chiefs and politicians. California’s high-speed link has already encountered significant problems despite covering minimal distance. Building major infrastructure requires the right team, detailed planning, and a modular approach. Supporting engineering departments at universities is crucial for nurturing the talent pipeline.
Ultimately, it takes determination from all political parties to ensure success. France and Spain have demonstrated valuable political consensus on high-speed rail. However, Sunak, more focused on accounting than vision, has jeopardized this consensus. Unfortunately, the UK is susceptible to such behavior.
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