Yesterday was a disastrous day for House Republicans and their struggling leader, Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In the morning, McCarthy had to cancel a procedural vote on a GOP proposal to prevent a government shutdown at the end of the month. In the afternoon, conservatives blocked McCarthy’s attempt to advance legislation funding the Pentagon.
The failure of the proposal to prevent a shutdown is a significant defeat for both Republicans and the country. Even if McCarthy manages to pass a version of the proposal, it will likely be futile. The funding will only last for 30 days, and its key provisions, such as spending cuts and border wall construction, will probably be removed by Senate Democrats.
Representative Kelly Armstrong of North Dakota, a McCarthy ally, expressed optimism despite the GOP’s dysfunction. He mentioned the ongoing productive conversations within the party to resolve the crisis. However, House Republicans are still far from resolving the situation, as they are facing numerous challenges.
The Democrats in the Senate are not part of these productive conversations. McCarthy needs to unite his own party’s factions before negotiating with the Democrats. However, there is currently discord among Republicans regarding an opening offer. While some groups support the 30-day extension with spending cuts and border restrictions, hard-liners reject it. They even openly express a desire for a government shutdown, creating a challenge for McCarthy.
It only takes five Republicans to derail proposals without Democratic support and potentially topple McCarthy. Due to this, he has limited room for maneuvering and is essentially a hostage to his caucus.
Even Armstrong, who remains relatively optimistic, acknowledges McCarthy’s difficult position. McCarthy has attempted to dismiss threats to his speakership, but the narrow majority and lack of consensus within the party make it challenging for any replacement. Armstrong suggests that McCarthy should not yet ignore the hard-liners and strike a deal with Democrats to keep the government open.
House Republicans have received little support from their Senate counterparts. The Senate is more willing to uphold the budget deal struck between McCarthy and President Joe Biden, while House Republicans bow to conservative demands. This internal discord could lead to the House Republicans being isolated and their legislation being rejected by the Senate.
The impending shutdown raises concerns for both parties. The Democratic Party is watching the Republican infighting with mixed feelings, as it may help them regain a House majority. However, a shutdown reflects poorly on both parties, potentially leading voters to blame Biden and the GOP. The consequences would include furloughs for federal workers and delays in receiving benefits.
Representative Gerry Connolly, a Democrat, reflects on the incompetence and dysfunction of the government, which affects America’s reputation globally. He believes there is a 90% chance of a shutdown, describing the situation as heading towards a cliff.
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