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Western security agencies are concerned about a new threat known as incels, which stands for male “involuntary celibates”. Incels were mentioned in the British government’s counterterror strategy update in July. US and Canadian intelligence services were already alarmed. The emergence of killer incels dates back to 2014 when Elliot Rodger, a 22-year-old virgin, murdered six people in California as an act of “retribution” because he felt rejected by women.
While a few incels are dangerous misogynists, there is a larger and growing group of invisible incels who suffer harmless frustration and misery. It is important to be concerned about them as well.
The easiest place to find incels is within the peculiar realms of the online “manosphere”. Users of incel websites believe that women are the dominant sex. They lament that women are only attracted to good-looking, tall, and confident Alpha males, referred to as “Chads” in incel jargon. Incels themselves perceive themselves as unattractive or short, known as “zetas” in their own estimation, resulting in a lack of “SMV” (sexual market value). Many incels are virgins, some have never even been kissed.
Misogyny is rampant on these forums, with incels blaming women for their inceldom. Some incels claim a “right to sex”, suggesting that women should be redistributed from Chads to them. However, since few incels are politically active, this remains a wish rather than a policy platform. Incels encourage each other to embrace the concept of “blackpill”, accepting their sexual inferiority as unchangeable. Talk of suicide is common and often supported, as noted by Miriam Lindner, a psychologist at Harvard University, in her award-winning academic paper on incels.
However, it is crucial to recognize that these misogynistic sites only attract tens of thousands of angry male incels, as estimated by criminologist Lisa Sugiura in her 2021 book The Incel Rebellion. This group likely includes the incels responsible for nearly 50 killings in the US and Canada between 2014 and 2019. While this toll is devastating, it pales in comparison to the nearly 1,700 women killed by their intimate partners in the US in 2021 alone. In other words, the greatest risk to women comes from the men they are involved with.
Beyond the small group of incels who visit these sites, there could be tens of millions of involuntary celibates who never engage with them. The vast majority of these individuals probably do not harbor hatred towards women. They could be your harmless neighbors or colleagues. And their numbers are increasing. While older generations traditionally worried about the younger generation being “oversexed”, the new generation appears to be undersexed.
In countries like China and India, the abortion of girls and female infanticide have led to an imbalance, resulting in a staggering excess of 70 million men who will be unable to find female partners, as identified by Lindner. In the US in 2019, 28% of young men had not had sex with a woman in a year, compared to about 10% a decade earlier, according to the General Social Survey conducted by the University of Chicago. In a 2016 national survey of Japanese individuals aged 18-34, 42% of men reported being virgins.
Dating websites may be contributing to the problem. Rather than leading to actual sexual encounters, these platforms may be replacing real-life interactions, allowing users to satisfy their desires for attention and flirtation online without ever meeting anyone in person.
Lindner identifies female autonomy as a major trigger for inceldom. With women now having successful careers, choosing to stay single, and being less likely to be exclusively heterosexual, many no longer rely on men, especially those with low social status. Lindner presents evidence that women are more selective in their sexual preferences compared to men. In one study, women rated 80% of men’s attractiveness as below average. Women seeking casual sex tend to pursue attractive, well-paid, and well-educated men, or “Chads”. Another study found that a man in the top percentile of attractiveness receives 190 times more likes on dating apps than a man in the bottom 50%.
As a result, a select group of men are enjoying a period of sexual abundance while incels continue to proliferate. The top 5% of men increased their number of sexual partners by 38% between 2003 and 2013, according to the US National Survey of Family Growth. In other words, there is an unsettling kernel of truth in the incel worldview. While women are not socially dominant, empowered women are increasingly inclined to reject low-status males.
The typical response from incels is not violence but rather a state of misery. In a survey conducted on the incel.co forum, 68% of respondents reported experiencing “long-lasting” depression. Adding to the complexity, it is believed that many incels are on the autism spectrum. Sugiura writes, “It is unfair to suggest that the entire incel community revolves around violence and hatred when it is mostly centered on self-loathing.”
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