The Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted the Belt and Road forum in Beijing today, welcoming delegations from developing countries around the world. This gathering aims to showcase China’s influence in the global South and counter Washington’s isolation and pressure tactics against Beijing. However, one notable absence was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has refused to join Xi’s infrastructure-building program and instead advocated for alternatives.
The absence of Modi from the Belt and Road forum signifies that the rivalry between the United States and China is not the only major force shaping global affairs. The competition between China and India, with its geopolitical consequences, holds equal importance. The outcome of this rivalry will determine the future of international governance and the world order, as well as American global power.
Xi’s objective is to create a bloc of supporters in the global South that can help expand Chinese influence and challenge American dominance. However, New Delhi is not interested in a world system centered around China. Modi has been intensifying his diplomacy in the global South to establish India as a counterweight to China.
For the United States, Modi’s assertiveness presents an opportunity. With India as an ally, the U.S. can argue that joining forces with China to disrupt the American-led global order will benefit the global South less compared to partnerships with the United States and India.
Despite this, Biden and Modi are facing an uphill battle. Xi has long understood the aspirations and frustrations of the global South and has leveraged them to China’s advantage. The Belt and Road Initiative, launched ten years ago, has provided an alternative source of development financing, challenging the dominance of Western institutions like the World Bank. Xi has also fostered forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS group to promote the interests of developing countries. Ideologically, Xi has introduced the Global Development Initiative to address economic inequality and ensure more equitable distribution of growth’s benefits. Earlier this year, China’s former foreign minister framed global affairs as a struggle between development and containment of development.
China’s efforts have paid off, as seen in the recent BRICS summit where Xi managed to overcome Modi’s opposition and obtain agreement to invite new members likely to support China’s interests.
India is concerned about China encroaching upon its historical role as the champion of the postcolonial developing world. China has even undermined India’s primacy in South Asia by heavily supporting Pakistan, India’s arch-nemesis.
China’s assertive foreign policy has further exacerbated tensions. From aggressively pressing territorial claims to sparking deadly conflicts with India, Xi’s actions have strained relations. Meanwhile, Modi has taken advantage of Xi’s absence from international summits to strengthen his position as a global advocate for the South. He strives to offer poor and marginalized countries a path to greater influence through cooperation with the West instead of confrontation.
However, India’s capacity to counterbalance China is limited due to its smaller economy. Modi will need to work with partners such as the United States to effectively challenge China’s dominance in the global South.
While many countries are attending Xi’s Belt and Road forum, numerous governments are cautious about taking sides in a great-power standoff. Modi’s approach, which includes preserving partnerships with the West as well as China, is likely to appeal to these nations. With India’s involvement, Xi cannot easily argue that the future depends solely on conflict between the West and the rest. Multiple centers of power are emerging in the developing world, each promoting distinct visions for a more balanced future. However, Xi seems uninterested in listening and instead believes he can gather…
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