Why Have Genuine Restaurant Openings Declined?

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Before the pandemic, some of us were already writing about an unsustainable hospitality industry. Rents were too high, work conditions and pay were appalling, and customers were not willing to pay more. Then, unexpected lockdowns demonstrated the resilience and adaptability of small businesses. We emerged from the pandemic into a prolonged financial crisis.

It’s no surprise that the hospitality industry we see today is drastically different and moving at a rapid pace. While investors still show interest in large projects, the independent restaurant model is undergoing significant transformation.

Though it may not be statistically significant, I’ve noticed that very few of the emails announcing “new openings” for smaller restaurants actually turn out to be permanent. A closer look reveals that these openings are mostly temporary or “pop-ups”. I remember a time when pop-ups were hosted in someone’s home, not in fully-equipped restaurant spaces. It’s unclear what secretive arrangements landlords, developers, restaurateurs, and chefs are making, but none of them seem to be in it for the long haul.

In addition to the pop-ups in my inbox, there are also announcements for “collabs”. This practice involves chefs cooking in each other’s kitchens. Collabs become the talk of the industry, although I have never heard a customer express excitement over a new collaboration. Then there’s another type of collaboration – giant chains and international hotel groups making vague announcements about their loose relationship with a celebrity chef. It’s less of a restaurant launch and more of a brand partnership.

All of this got me thinking about the entertainment industry, particularly a Hollywood term: “opening”. In the early days of Hollywood, the studios were the dominant players, owning everything including the actors. Over time, the role of the studios shifted and now agents and lawyers hold considerable power. Actors can become presidents — not just of studios, but of countries. Nobody shoots on backlots anymore, everything is rented, and most people are freelancers. This is where the parallels with the restaurant industry emerge.

Movie production today involves a temporary collaboration of people and resources, centered around certain individuals or assets. While I have zero hope of selling a screenplay in Hollywood, if Tom Cruise expresses interest in a two-line “elevator pitch” and signs on, everything falls into place (including the screenplay writers). Cruise has the power to “open” a movie. James Cameron and Christopher Nolan also had that power. And right now, Greta Gerwig could undoubtedly open a movie… as could Barbie. Yes, a character can be a brand and a brand can be a franchise. Batman can open a movie with different actors playing the role. Studios, agents, wealth funds, media celebrities unrelated to film, and various “entities” can open a movie. Even Paddington, who isn’t a star or an actor — or even a real bear.

In the beginning, restaurants were started by individuals who had grown in the industry and somehow managed to raise enough capital to rent premises. They opened restaurants where nobody knew the chef’s name. Then, some chefs became stars and their names were prominently displayed. They became international media brands, attracting serious investors. Today, things are even wilder. It feels like restaurants come together spontaneously, with the right people and resources for a short period of time.

Empty establishments, restaurants suddenly in need of head chefs, developers looking to transform their lifeless towers into vibrant “quarters”, oligarchs or TikTok-famous chef-bros – these are the things around which the modern hospitality business thrives, like mussels clinging to a rope.

It’s exciting and almost liberating. There are still big brands that overshadow everything, but small independent establishments are creating remarkable things in the gaps. Many new ventures are being “opened”. Crews and teams form, break apart, collaborate, and come together again at a thrilling pace.

However, there’s a caveat. If all the creative thinking happens in short cycles, restaurants may become like TV series, with everyone focused on their next project and personal career “arc”. With long-established giants like Le Gavroche becoming extinct, the restaurant industry might move towards a fragmented, fast-evolving future. The biggest question becomes: who or what can open a restaurant?

So here’s my elevator pitch to you… It’s basically Sexy Fish, but with foraged ingredients. And guess what… we’ve got Cruise on board too.

Follow Tim @TimHayward and email him at [email protected]

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