Washington Nationals outfielder Corey Dickerson reflected on a conversation he had in 2018 with a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ front office. During the conversation, the member expressed a preference for hitting home runs with two outs rather than attempting to string together three consecutive hits. This revelation made Dickerson realize that teams no longer prioritize batting average as much as they did in the past.
In recent years, the game of baseball has been dominated by the three true outcomes: home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Modern offenses are more accepting of strikeouts, as they come with the territory of hitting more home runs. However, the Nationals have adopted a different approach this season, focusing on contact rather than power. MLB has implemented rule changes to encourage more contact and balls in play, and the Nationals have excelled in this area. Manager Dave Martinez emphasizes the importance of driving the ball instead of settling for simply making contact. The team aims to move the baseball and avoid strikeouts, as they believe nothing good comes from striking out.
The three true outcome percentage measures the proportion of at-bats that end in a home run, walk, or strikeout. This season, the three true outcome figure stands at 34.4 percent, with four of the past five seasons seeing the highest TTO percentages. Hitters with high three true outcome percentages tend to wait for pitches they can hit for power while laying off those they can’t. Dickerson suggests that these hitters compensate for their lack of power by drawing walks, which essentially act as singles. He also theorizes that teams constructing their rosters will seek out contact hitters to complement power-heavy lineups.
However, hitters must adapt to the pitching they face. Dickerson noticed a shift in pitching strategies around 2017, with pitchers relying on more high fastballs. Nationals infielder Michael Chavis explains that pitchers nowadays prioritize strikeouts over contact and are willing to walk batters if they know they can strike out the next one. Chavis acknowledges the Nationals’ ability to hit the ball around the yard and highlights the importance of playing to each player’s strengths within the lineup.
Power in baseball doesn’t solely refer to home runs, as the Nationals rank 10th in MLB in doubles. However, their home run percentage is the fourth-lowest, indicating their focus on contact rather than power. Despite striking out at the second-lowest rate in the majors, they also walk the least. Hitting coach Darnell Coles explains that low strikeout and walk numbers suggest that the team isn’t getting to two-strike counts often enough. By focusing on plate discipline and taking walks when appropriate, the Nationals can keep the line moving and improve their on-base percentage.
Coles adds that the Nationals were not constructed to be a power-hitting team. While some players have hit home runs, only a few have reached double digits. However, the team is learning to play within the framework of their offense, starting with plate discipline. The Nationals have a high swing percentage but haven’t always produced hard contact. They have seen the fewest pitches this season yet have one of the highest totals of batted balls. Dickerson acknowledges that MLB is still built on power, but he has noticed a recent shift back towards more contact. To make their contact-oriented strategy successful, the Nationals need to improve their plate discipline and learn when to take pitches.
In conclusion, the Washington Nationals have embraced a contact-first approach this season, prioritizing making contact and driving the ball rather than relying solely on power. This approach contrasts with the prevailing trend in baseball towards the three true outcomes. The team recognizes the importance of plate discipline and aims to avoid strikeouts while focusing on moving the baseball and taking advantage of scoring opportunities. By improving their plate discipline, the Nationals can maximize their offensive potential and succeed with their contact-oriented strategy.
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