As the United Kingdom faces crisis after crisis under Rishi Sunak’s leadership, it seems increasingly certain that a change in government is on the horizon. Labour’s leadership wants us to believe that they are the solution, bringing common sense, competence, and the promise of change. However, there is a problem: their proposed solutions seem lackluster and may do little to address the urgent challenges at hand.
In recent weeks, senior Labour figures have been emphasizing the supposedly dire state of public finances and the need for fiscal restraint. They argue that significant tax and spending changes will have to wait until the economy is thriving again, which could take a considerable amount of time. Even their £28 billion per year climate investment pledge has been scaled back and delayed. They ask us to lower our expectations for urgent help, claiming that “reform” is the main answer without providing clear details.
Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, recently wrote an article for The Observer reinforcing this position. He acknowledged the broken state of affairs across the country but conveniently omitted the 13 years of austerity his party had a hand in. He insisted that the government’s loss of control over the economy is the root cause, emphasizing the need for “iron-clad fiscal rules.” He scolded the left, calling for a greater focus on growth, wealth creation, and enterprise.
Starmer’s understanding of his own party’s history and political philosophy seems shallow. Labour’s fundamental difference from the Conservatives lies in their understanding that growth, financial markets, and entrepreneurial spirit alone cannot solve issues of poverty and inequality. The public sector exists to address these enduring social ills, and when it falters, it is due to deliberate choices to underfund it. However, Starmer now advocates for “reform”, suggesting that services need to be modern, innovative, and focused on the people who use them.
This point seems strange, as it implies that schools and hospitals are not already centered around their users. It echoes Tony Blair’s rhetoric of redesigning the system around the user, which ultimately led to problematic changes. Starmer’s plans lack substance and clarity, offering no immediate solution to the current national collapse. For example, in response to the government’s refusal to fully fund public sector pay rises, it is unclear how Labour would address the costs.
There is another tension in Starmer’s positioning. Does he lack the will or the means to find additional funds? Symbolic moves like changing non-dom status rules or ending VAT exceptions for private schools generate only small amounts of revenue. Starmer has signaled a U-turn on plans to increase income tax for high earners, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has indicated that capital gains tax will not be raised. The economy’s mix of inflation and stagnation presents complex challenges, but Labour’s response seems to box them into a corner.
This raises an interesting question: if Labour wins, what will their government actually look like? Regardless of their manifesto and campaign narratives, a change in regime will trigger calls for immediate change after 13 years of underinvestment and cuts. Labour-run councils, faced with funding gaps, will demand greater financial autonomy and increased funding from central government. Activists from the green movement will seize the opportunity to push for their agenda. The case for renewed ties with the EU may resurface with a focus on single market membership. Community activists fighting poverty and inequality will demand action. A re-energized trade union movement may make their grievances heard even louder. It remains unclear whether Starmer, Reeves, and Streeting have the policies, authority, and political talent to manage these forces.
Right now, Labour is emphasizing two contradictory ideas. On one hand, they are calling for fiscal restraint and caution, while on the other hand, they want to address urgent issues. They need to provide detailed, practical solutions and demonstrate the ability to navigate the complex challenges ahead. Otherwise, the change in regime may bring about more noise and demands for change from various groups.
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