Westpac Predicts Immigration Surge to Compensate for Covid Border Closure by Christmas
By Stephen Johnson, Economics Reporter For Daily Mail Australia Published: 11:20 BST, 22 September 2023 | Updated: 11:25 BST, 22 September 2023
In a positive turn of events, Westpac has forecasted that Australia’s recent immigration surge will more than make up for the Covid-induced international border closure by Christmas. This prediction comes after a record-breaking 454,400 migrants moved to Australia in the year leading up to March, resulting in an incredibly high annual population growth rate.
Before the pandemic, Australia witnessed a significant average of annual arrivals, which is expected to be doubled by an estimated 240,000 more foreigners arriving this year alone. The closure of Australia’s borders to skilled migrants and international students from March 2020 to December 2021 caused a decline in population and marked the first decrease seen since World War I. Quarter after quarter, more people were leaving Australia than being born.
However, since the reopening of Australia’s borders in 2021, immigration has surged, making up more than 80% of the country’s population growth. Ryan Wells, an analyst from Westpac, believes that this immigration boom will compensate for the losses suffered during the Covid period and will even surpass the pre-pandemic trajectory of migration.
The current net overseas migration level is significantly higher than the average level seen in the five years leading up to the pandemic. Westpac’s forecast predicts a net annual immigration pace of 475,000 in 2023, followed by 375,000 in 2024 and 275,000 in 2025. This projected migration-driven recovery in population growth demonstrates remarkable strength so far this year, with a peak anticipated.
Compared to the pre-pandemic average, this would result in an “excess” gain of 240,000 in 2023, 140,000 in 2024, and 40,000 in 2025. The Treasury Budget papers in May estimated that 1.5 million migrants would relocate to Australia in the five years leading up to July 2027, including a record-breaking 400,000 in 2022-23 and 315,000 in 2023-24.
Australia’s population growth rate is currently at an annual pace of 2.2%, which is one of the highest rates among developed countries. The country’s total population has now surpassed 26.5 million, approaching levels last seen in the post-war era. The Business Council of Australia, representing major corporations and industries, has been advocating for high immigration to overcome skills shortages, especially with unemployment rates still at a low 3.7%.
Westpac anticipates that the jobless rate will reach 4.7% by the end of 2024, which would be the highest level since October 2021 when Australia was under strict foreigner restrictions and cities like Sydney and Melbourne were in lockdown.
Source: [Daily Mail Australia](link)
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