Currently, the Washington Nationals are in the midst of a significant rebuild that is entering a crucial phase. After finishing as the worst team in MLB last year, they have recently seen success by winning 29 of their past 50 games. This has led them to surpass six other teams in the standings, including the Cardinals and Pirates. As of Monday, with 37 games left to play, they were tied with the Tigers, trailing the Mets (the highest-paid team in history) by just one and a half games, and were also behind the defending American League Central champions, the Guardians, by two games. Additionally, they were trailing the highly talented but underperforming Padres by two and a half games.
However, it is not enough for the Nationals to simply surpass other teams in the standings. There is no trophy rewarded for having a better record than ten out of the thirty teams in the league. Nonetheless, aside from watching a team compete for a pennant, one of my favorite pleasures in MLB is witnessing a team of overachievers defy preseason expectations. Notable examples include the 1989 Orioles, who improved by 33 wins, and the 2007 Nationals, who were predicted to be the worst team in history but refused to lose even 90 games.
The Nationals should be commended for their two months of impressive play, regardless of what lies ahead. On August 13, they staged an incredible comeback by scoring six runs in the bottom of the ninth to win 8-7 against the Oakland Athletics. Then, just five days later, they responded to a six-run fourth inning by the Phillies with six runs of their own in the bottom half, ultimately winning 8-7. These thrilling victories have put the Nationals on pace for 74 wins, which is 19 more wins than last season.
This progress is quite remarkable considering the team’s schedule will become more challenging in the remaining games. Nevertheless, the Nationals have come a long way in just one year. To go from being the best team in MLB in 2019 to the worst team in 2022 and then make a quick turnaround towards the top requires executing several difficult transformations simultaneously, rather than just some of them.
One of the most painful aspects of a rebuild is trading away your most valuable and popular players such as Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Josh Bell. In return, you must acquire young players who are ready to contribute at the major league level and will become part of the team’s foundation. So far, the Nationals seem to have succeeded in this aspect, going 4 for 4.
Right-handed starter Josiah Gray, who became an all-star last month, and lefty MacKenzie Gore, who now matches Scherzer’s strikeout rate, may not yet possess the polished skills of top-of-the-rotation pitchers but have the potential to get there. Catcher Keibert Ruiz has been exceptional over the past six weeks with a .977 OPS, while shortstop CJ Abrams has been stealing bases at an impressive rate since being moved to the leadoff spot. Abrams could soon become a shortstop with 20-homer and 60-steal potential and exceptional defensive skills.
In these transformative trades, it is crucial to acquire at least one young star for the future. James Wood, a 6-foot-6, 240-pound outfielder and MLB.com’s seventh overall prospect, fits the bill. Wood possesses immense power and speed, but it is important not to rush his development. It takes time and patience for young players to hone their skills. Even with improved instruction, as Ted Williams once stated, it still takes around 1,200 at-bats in the minors to truly master the craft. Wood has accumulated 765 at-bats so far with an impressive .921 OPS.
During a team’s low point, it is essential to make successful first-round draft picks. The Nationals have been relatively successful in this area, going 2 for 3. Brady House, a powerful third baseman hitting .316 at Class AA, shows great potential and is expected to make his MLB debut around 2025. Elijah Green, last year’s top pick, is only 19 years old, so patience is required. However, it is worth noting that Green has a high strikeout rate of 50%, which is a challenge for any prospect to overcome.
This year’s No. 2 pick, Dylan Crews, has already reached Class AA ball in Harrisburg after just 15 games. This is reminiscent of Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, who both experienced success at that level before quickly progressing to the majors. Soto also excelled at Class AA before receiving his MLB call-up. When Crews arrives, it may not be as significant as Strasmas, but it will still be an exciting moment to witness.
Another crucial aspect of a rebuild is uncovering underrated players who can contribute significantly when given the opportunity. These players are often acquired for relatively low cost, but they become essential parts of the team’s core. When every game becomes an opportunity for players to showcase their skills, the challenge lies in finding the hidden talent.
The Nationals have excelled in uncovering players in this category. Right fielder Lane Thomas, acquired for Jon Lester, has been performing at an all-star level and will celebrate his 28th birthday this week. Riley Adams, hitting .316, has the potential to back up Ruiz and serve as a DH for years to come. He was acquired for reliever Brad Hand.
Surprisingly, Thomas and Adams are considered the costly acquisitions. Half of the players on the Nationals’ current roster, including Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett, Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and Jordan Weems, were picked up as free agents or off the waiver wire.
Thomas, Meneses, and possibly Garrett have displayed offensive abilities similar to Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, and Wilson Ramos in the early 2010s. While only Ramos made an all-star team during this period, all three players were valuable contributors. Finnegan, Harvey, and Weems have also performed exceptionally well, with ERAs under 3.00 and the ability to throw pitches at 100 mph.
Zimmerman once emphasized the importance of having a roster filled with good players, not just superstars, to succeed. The Nationals’ front office, particularly in terms of scouting everyday players and relievers, has excelled in finding these hidden gems.
In his 1,288 plate appearances as a National, Thomas has a 117 OPS+, which is 17 percent above the league average. From ages 26 to 30, Zimmerman had a 117 OPS+. Additionally, Thomas has shown impressive base-running and defensive skills, comparable to Zimmerman’s capabilities during that time.
The Nationals should be thrilled to have control over Thomas until 2025 and should consider extending his contract rather than trading him for prospects. Good players at reasonable prices are not easy to find.
Meneses is another example of the Nationals’ success in unearthing talent. In terms of offensive value, he is comparable, if not superior, to LaRoche at the same age. As a 31-year-old hitter, Meneses can provide the same level of production as LaRoche, who averaged 26 home runs, 83 RBI, and had an OPS+ of 118 from ages 32 to 34.
The Nationals may have also discovered a rising star in Garrett, who struggled in the minors until 2021. Last year, he excelled in Class AA and AAA, recording an impressive number of RBIs. Although he has only had 305 MLB at-bats so far, his .823 OPS demonstrates his potential. Garrett possesses speed, enthusiasm, makes sliding catches, but is also prone to strikeouts.
Despite these positive developments, the Nationals face a challenge in terms of their starting pitching. Apart from Gray and Gore, the team lacks young starting pitchers with high potential, and their current staff ranks near the bottom of MLB in ERA and home runs allowed.
Veteran Patrick Corbin has performed well after a rocky start in April. Jake Irvin may serve as a fifth starter or a long reliever in the future, while Cade Cavalli, who missed this season due to elbow surgery, is expected to return in 2024.
The Nationals should prioritize adding starting pitching through free agency or trades in their ongoing rebuilding process. The first addition does not need to be a high-profile signing like Scherzer; there is still time to address this need.
For now, fans can enjoy the Nationals’ improved record and their overall unity, resilience, and joy for the game under the leadership of Manager Dave Martinez, who recently agreed to a well-deserved contract extension.
As the dog days of August continue and September approaches, many opponents of the Nationals may lack motivation, whether due to established careers or hefty bank accounts. On the other hand, each Nationals player will be driven by a desire to prove themselves. They may not appear to be a formidable late-season contender on the surface, but anyone aiming to reach the top must never underestimate them.
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