In the ninth season of Dallas, the 1980s blockbuster TV show about Texas oil barons, the handsome young scion of the Ewing dynasty – Bobby – appeared in the shower of his ex-wife and true love Pam even though the character had been killed off a year earlier. Dumbstruck viewers had to swallow the idea that 12 months’ worth of storylines had all been a dream. But the show’s declining ratings suggested the audience missed Bobby – and waking up from a slumber offered the cleanest way to recover Dallas’s mojo. Across Britain, lots of voters must think the same might be true of Brexit, reasoning that the decision to leave the European Union is a nightmare that the country needs to wake up from.
That might be one cause for the UK’s decision to sign up as an associate member of the EU’s £85bn Horizon research programme. Being outside the project meant UK science lost funding, collaborations, and key contact with EU universities. Getting back into the scheme – or at least most of it – was the right thing to do because being fully outside was self-harm. Negotiations to return were going nowhere until the Conservative party relieved itself of the delusional idea that the Irish border would be unaffected by leaving the EU, with its “Windsor framework”.
This outbreak of realism in Rishi Sunak’s Tory party is driven by self-interest. Similar to Dallas’s falling ratings, the Conservatives’ poll standings are declining. Public opinion has shifted away from Brexit, with over half the country believing that leaving the bloc was a mistake. Crucially, a portion of leave voters from 2016 have changed their minds due to Brexit’s failure to fulfill promises of economic energization and immigration reduction. Rather, leaving the EU likely exacerbated the cost of living crisis.
Even Brexit’s staunch supporters acknowledge that “global Britain” is not a trade heavyweight, lacking experience and even coming out worse in a deal with the smaller Australian economy. As voters lose faith in the government’s ability to control borders, it becomes difficult to reconcile a trade deal with India that could potentially ease entry for Indian citizens into the UK.
However, the Tory party hasn’t changed as much as the UK itself. In 2019, most Conservative members were willing to sacrifice their party for Brexit. Mr. Sunak, who supported Brexit in 2016, is now tasked with cleaning up a mess he contributed to. But neither the prime minister nor any of his ambitious rivals can admit this publicly due to emotional and ideological investments. Nigel Farage’s ability to cause chaos in Tory ranks is another reason the party remains in favor of Brexit and won’t change its stance.
Rejoining the EU is likely a tough sell. The EU benefits more from the “trade and cooperation agreement,” as it aids goods exports but does little for services, which is Britain’s strength. A more equitable relationship could be achieved in 2025 with the five-year review of the agreement. The dream of Brexit’s sunlit uplands has faded, and Britain has awakened to the reality that the next election winner will likely move towards closer relations with Brussels, rather than further away.
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