A banner displaying an image of Alberto Nuñez Feijoo, leader of the PP Party. Spanish voters will head to the polls on July 23 to cast their votes and determine Spain’s next government.
Pablo Blazquez Dominguez | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Spain’s voters are participating in an election on Sunday that may lead to the rise of the far right for the first time since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco.
Polls conducted prior to the election suggest a conservative victory, with the PP (Partido Popular) projected to receive approximately 34% of the vote — insufficient to secure a majority government.
Some political analysts anticipate that the PP will form a coalition with the far right party Vox, which could become the third largest political force in this election, garnering over 10% of the votes.
“The most likely outcome is a coalition government led by the PP, with control over key ministries, and Vox as the junior partner,” stated Federico Santi, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, in a note on Wednesday.
He further added that this scenario “would have a moderately positive impact on the market, as evident from the performance of Spanish asset prices in recent weeks. Spanish equity indices have outperformed their European counterparts, while the sovereign credit spread relative to Germany has remained relatively stable.”
Not Their First Encounter
The conservative party PP and the far right Vox have previously formed political agreements to govern in three of Spain’s regional authorities and have similar accords in smaller cities.
However, their relationship appears to be more of a forced coexistence than a natural partnership.
An advertisement billboard of the far-right wing party Vox was vandalized with black paint during the election campaign.
Pablo Blazquez Dominguez | Getty Images News | Getty Images
In a televised debate prior to the elections, PP leader Alberto Feijóo indicated his willingness to cooperate with Vox if he required their support. However, members of the conservative party have expressed concerns about Vox’s stance on LGBT rights and immigration.
Vox has also faced criticism from mainstream politicians for opposing abortion rights and denying climate change, among other policies.
During a debate with incumbent socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, Feijóo remarked that his rival cannot lecture other politicians on alliances, as Sanchez had made agreements with separatist parties to secure a working majority in parliament.
The Battle of Cultures
Tacho Rufino, an economist at the University of Seville, stated in an interview with CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Thursday that this election is less about economics and more about cultural issues such as nationalism, LGBT rights, and climate change.
Sanchez, in particular, has faced criticism for pardoning politicians who support regional independence. Additionally, his administration has faced challenges with the “only yes means yes” sexual consent law, which created a loophole and reduced the sentences of many convicted rapists.
The Sunday vote may also be influenced by climate change, as this is the first election held during the summertime. Spain is one of the southern European countries that has recently experienced a significant heatwave.
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