A significant and critical chapter in the ongoing political battle over abortion rights is currently unfolding in suburban communities throughout Virginia. These closely divided suburban and exurban districts will determine which party gains control of the Virginia state legislature after the upcoming election. The Republicans are making a noteworthy attempt to reshape the politics of abortion rights, which could potentially have far-reaching consequences.
In the previous midterm elections, the issue of abortion played a central role in mitigating the Republicans’ anticipated strong performance. Republican governors and legislators who implemented abortion restrictions in traditionally Republican-leaning states faced little backlash from voters. However, attempts to curtail abortion rights proved challenging for Republican candidates in Democratic-leaning and swing states.
Led by Governor Glenn Youngkin, Virginia Republicans are now striving to develop a position that will be more appealing to voters outside of the traditional Republican strongholds. In the current legislative session, Youngkin and the Republicans, who have a narrow majority in the state House of Delegates, sought to pass a 15-week limit on legal abortion with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, and threats to the mother’s life. However, they were unable to succeed due to opposition from Democrats, who hold a slim majority in the state Senate.
With every seat in both chambers up for grabs in the November election, Youngkin and the Republicans have made it clear that if they secure unified control of the legislature, they will move forward with implementing the 15-week limit. Currently, Virginia allows abortion through the second trimester of pregnancy (about 26 weeks), making it the only southern state that has not rolled back abortion rights following the Supreme Court ruling in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade.
Virginia Republicans argue that the 15-week limit, with exceptions, represents a “consensus” position that most voters will accept, even in a state that has leaned towards Democrats in recent federal races. Zack Roday, the director of the Republican coordinated campaign effort, stated that discussing a 15-week limit with exceptions is viewed as a reasonable approach.
If Youngkin and the GOP succeed in gaining control of both legislative chambers next month, it is highly likely that other Republicans outside of traditionally conservative states will adopt their approach to abortion. Furthermore, a victory for the Virginia GOP could encourage the national Republican Party to unite behind a federal ban on abortion at 15 weeks with exceptions.
On the other hand, if Republicans fail to gain unified control in Virginia, it could signal that any proposal to restrict abortion rights will face significant resistance in states beyond the traditional Republican strongholds. Ryan Stitzlein, the vice president of political and government relations at the advocacy group Reproductive Freedom for All, believes that Youngkin’s position will be rejected by voters, asserting that there is no such thing as a “consensus” ban and that Virginians do not support an abortion ban.
The battle over abortion rights is playing out in the campaigns of Democratic legislative candidates Joel Griffin and Joshua Cole, who spent a morning canvassing for votes. Griffin is running for the Virginia state Senate, while Cole is running for the state House of Delegates, representing overlapping districts centered on Fredericksburg. These districts have become highly contested battlegrounds, having voted for Biden in 2020 before switching to Youngkin in 2021 and then favoring Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger in the 2022 congressional election.
However, the voting patterns in these districts are indicative of the seats that will determine control of the legislature. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics reveals that all the most competitive House seats (10 out of 100) and Senate districts (6 out of 40) in Virginia voted for Biden in 2020 but switched to Youngkin in the following year. These districts are primarily located in suburban and exurban areas, particularly around Richmond and Northern Virginia, which have been trending blue, reflecting the broader trend of educated suburban areas leaning towards the Democrats during the Trump era.
These suburban areas have consistently favored Democrats in elections that revolved around abortion, as demonstrated by the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election earlier this year and an Ohio ballot initiative in August. In state legislative elections held this year, Democrats have also consistently outperformed Biden’s 2020 results in the same districts.
Democrats argue that the issue of abortion remains a powerful motivating factor for voters, despite claims that they are focusing too much on the issue. Heather Williams, the interim president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, emphasizes that there is substantial data and information from this year’s elections to suggest that abortion is still a potent issue.
Virginia Republicans are not solely relying on their reformulated abortion stance in this campaign. They are also heavily investing in portraying Democrats as weak on crime, prone to raising taxes, and hostile towards parents’ rights in shaping their children’s education. Democrats warn that if Republicans gain unified control of the governorship and the state legislature, they will attempt to roll back voting rights and gun-control laws previously enacted by Democrats.
Both sides acknowledge that abortion is likely to be the deciding factor in next month’s election. Polling data shows mixed results, with a slim plurality of Virginia voters supporting a 15-week abortion limit with exceptions, while a larger percentage believes that abortion laws should not become more restrictive. Republicans believe that the key phrase for voters is “15 weeks,” while Democrats argue that most voters will hear only “ban” or “limit.”
The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the future of abortion rights in Virginia and may influence the trajectory of abortion policies in other states as well.
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