Victory Day Brings No Triumph for Vladimir Putin

When Russia invaded Ukraine, many analysts believed that the operation would be over by May 9. The expectation was that Russia’s overpowering military would swiftly subdue Ukraine, leading to a surrender and the replacement of the Kyiv government with a pro-Kremlin leadership. However, Vladimir Putin has not been able to conquer Ukraine; instead, his army is engaged in a protracted war in the east and losing ground. Putin underestimated the resilience and bravery of the Ukrainian people and the unity of the West against aggression, while overestimating the competence of his military.

Putin was not the only one to misjudge the situation. Nato also expected Ukraine to fall quickly, but all these assumptions must now be reconsidered, as they have significant geopolitical implications. Despite being a disaster for the Kremlin, the regime has managed to convince the population that the “special military operation” is going according to plan and any setbacks are attributable to NATO’s might, not just Ukraine. However, this narrative becomes harder to maintain as casualties increase and Russia faces the economic impact of sanctions, which will soon be felt by its people.

With the rising death toll and mounting evidence of a failed military campaign, it becomes increasingly difficult for Putin to claim victory in Ukraine. While Russia may display a show of force in today’s Victory Day parade, the question remains: are they capable of effectively fighting? Western planners are concerned that Putin may declare war on Ukraine, mobilizing reservists to significantly increase the deployment to the ongoing conflict. However, by doing so, he would be admitting to his people that the stories of a Russian triumph were false.

As the atrocities continue, with the recent deaths of people taking shelter in a school, the Kremlin faces a critical decision. It must choose between cutting its losses or intensifying the suffering of the Ukrainian people it claims to be defending and incurring significant costs for Russia. Whatever path Putin takes, this is not his victory day.

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