Looking for a new Jeep or Ford Bronco? You might need to act fast. Jay Darling’s dealerships still have some in stock, for now. However, due to a strike by the United Auto Workers, the assembly lines for these models, as well as the Chevrolet Colorado truck, have been shut down for almost two weeks.
This strike is unique because it marks the first time the UAW has simultaneously targeted all three major carmakers in Detroit — Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. The union is demanding higher pay for workers in an industry that is already seeing record profits.
As the strike continues, a crucial question arises for dealerships in the US: when will they run out of vehicles to sell?
Jay Darling, who manages multiple locations in Maine, expects inventories of affected vehicles to gradually decrease over the next four to six weeks.
“Eventually, these plant closures will impact allocations to dealers and inventory levels,” Darling explained. He stocks the Ford Bronco, Jeeps made by Stellantis, and GM’s Chevy Colorado. The simultaneous impact on all three brands is what makes this strike particularly catastrophic.
Prior to the strike, attention was focused on the inventory of vehicles from the “Detroit Three” that were still sitting on dealer lots. In the US, customers typically prefer to drive their new vehicle home on the same day they purchase it, rather than waiting for a factory order. This means American showrooms tend to stock higher numbers of cars compared to non-US markets. If customers can’t find the vehicle they want at one dealership, they are more likely to purchase from a nearby dealership, potentially choosing a different brand.
Darling believes people will have to go where there is available inventory. “The ability to produce vehicles will determine who comes out as winners from this strike,” he said.
Car manufacturers sometimes increase production in the weeks leading up to a strike to compensate for the impending downtime. However, data experts have not observed significant output boosts this time around.
Data from Cox Automotive reveals that GM has a 58-day supply across all brands, Ford has 85 days, and Stellantis has 107.
Inventories for certain models are even tighter. Dealers can sell the Jeep Wrangler, made by Stellantis, for 74 days without restocking, while the Chevy Colorado supply runs out in less than half that time. For the Ford Bronco and Ranger, both produced in the striking plant in Wayne, Michigan, there are only 40 and 26 days of supply, respectively.
Matthew Demmer, owner of Jack Demmer Automotive Group near the Ford plant in Wayne, confirms the impact of the strike. “Our supply of Bronco and Ranger has almost run out at this point,” he said. While they are still taking orders, it’s largely a waiting game for customers.
Car manufacturers are currently operating with less flexibility due to three years of record profits from lower sales during the pandemic. This tighter supply has also led to higher prices. The industry entered this strike with less inventory than before, hoping to influence pricing further.
However, this strategy is not without risks. The UAW’s method of targeting specific plants with short notice maximizes disruption for carmakers. The strike’s impact on sales might be smaller, but the length and scale of the subsequent disruption are harder to predict.
“Guerrilla warfare can be as painful as full-out war,” said auto analyst Philippe Houchois. “Hitting one plant can cause disruptions throughout the whole organization.”
Carmakers have a greater incentive to settle quickly to avoid any unforeseen issues. However, the UAW also faces risks. If the strike drags on, customers may turn to non-Detroit Three brands, which could weaken the market share and job security of UAW-affiliated companies.
“The worst-case scenario is if the Detroit Three lose share to Japanese or Korean rivals,” warned Houchois.
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