The weekend of September 30 marked a concerning shift in international support for Ukraine, not only in Washington, D.C., but also in two Eastern European countries that were once strong supporters. On that day, former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a last-minute budget deal to avoid a government shutdown that was conditional on eliminating U.S. aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, in Slovakia, voters gave the party of corrupt, pro-Russian conspiracy theorist Robert Fico a significant electoral victory. Fico campaigned on the slogan “Not a single round,” meaning that Slovakia would no longer provide ammunition to Ukraine. This development raises questions about the future of Ukraine’s international support.
Slovakia has historically been an important source of armed assistance and logistical support for Ukraine. However, Russia has targeted Slovakia as a fertile ground for promoting pro-Kremlin, pro-war narratives. Fico, who resigned as prime minister in disgrace in 2018 after the assassination of a journalist investigating his associates, has echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda about “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists.” Despite winning only 23 percent of the vote, Fico has been tapped by Slovakia’s president to lead the country’s coalition government, which is expected to reduce support for Ukraine and align more closely with Putin.
On the other side of Slovakia’s northern border, Poland, led by the right-wing Law and Justice party, has been Ukraine’s most important supporter in the European Union. However, this support has waned in recent years due to populist electioneering focused on anti-migrant sentiment. While the campaign primarily targets Middle Eastern refugees, it has also affected support for Ukraine. Polish officials have made inflammatory anti-Ukrainian statements on social media, and the far-right Confederation party has advocated for repatriating Ukrainians. The rise of xenophobia in Poland has been captured in the film “The Green Border” by Agnieszka Holland, which has faced criticism from Polish politicians. The film portrays the mistreatment of Syrian refugees but also highlights the changing dynamics of Polish support for Ukraine.
A year ago, Polish sociologists noted that support for Ukraine did not necessarily mean support for Ukrainians. These sentiments are now becoming more evident as Poland has led efforts to impose an indefinite embargo on Ukrainian grain. While other neighboring countries have negotiated separate deals with Ukraine, Law and Justice has resisted, citing concerns about competition for Polish farmers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized neighboring states for their lack of solidarity, accusing them of playing into Moscow’s hands. Law and Justice government ministers responded by expressing their frustration on social media.
The growing divide between Poland and Ukraine is a troubling trend for Ukraine, especially as other stalwart supporters also appear to be distancing themselves. Zelensky’s recent visits to the UN, United States, and Canada were aimed at strengthening transatlantic support after a lackluster summer counteroffensive. However, these efforts did not go as planned. In Canada, Zelensky unknowingly participated in a standing ovation for a 98-year-old Ukrainian-born Canadian who was later revealed to be a former Waffen SS fighter, which played into Putin’s narrative of Ukraine as a Nazi successor. In the U.S. Congress, Zelensky met with McCarthy and McConnell shortly before McCarthy gave in to House Republicans demanding an end to U.S. aid for Ukraine.
At a time when Ukraine desperately needs international backing, support is dwindling both domestically and abroad. Whether it comes from anti-migrant Poland, pro-Putin Slovakia, or other Eastern European countries that embrace illiberalism, the outcome remains the same: Ukraine’s international solidarity is diminishing.
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