On September 10th, the G20 world leaders, including Narendra Modi, Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak, and Justin Trudeau, visited Rajghat, a memorial to Mahatma Gandhi in New Delhi. The images of Modi leading these powerful individuals, barefoot or in slippers, wearing shawls, reinforced his image domestically and India’s global rise as a diplomatic and economic power. However, behind the scenes, a conflict was brewing that would soon escalate into a diplomatic crisis.
During a “pull-aside” talk later that day, Modi confronted Trudeau about “anti-India activities” among Sikh separatists in Canada. These extremists allegedly incited violence and posed a threat to the Indian community in India. In response, Trudeau publicly announced that Canadian intelligence had credible allegations of Indian agent involvement in the assassination of a Sikh separatist in Vancouver.
This conflict between India and Canada has led to the expulsion of diplomats and the suspension of visas. It also raises questions about the geopolitical bet that the US, UK, Australia, and other countries are making on India as a democratic ally against China. India has become one of America’s key foreign partners, and the US has invested heavily in enhancing relations with New Delhi.
Other allies, like the UK and France, have also deepened their partnerships with India. However, these alliances could be at risk if Canada’s allegations of an extraterritorial assassination orchestrated by the Indian state are proven true. It would raise doubts about Modi’s trustworthiness and democratic standards.
A wider schism between India and its western allies could undermine India’s move into the US orbit, especially as tensions with China escalate. It would also harm India’s efforts to elevate its international standing and could potentially cause western nations to choose sides.
For Canada, this conflict comes at a delicate time as it is already facing strained relations with China. The breakdown in relations with India could be costly, affecting bilateral trade and investments. Canada froze talks on a free trade agreement with India after the G20 summit.
While India’s western partners value it as an important ally, they must consider the concerns raised about sectarianism, hindering journalism, and targeting civil society under Modi’s leadership. The allegations made by Canada could jeopardize these relationships if proven true.
At the moment, Indian public opinion has largely rallied behind Modi, demanding evidence from Canada to support its claims. However, Trudeau’s allegations have marred India’s successful G20 moment and come ahead of a general election where Modi will campaign on India’s international standing.
The situation is complex and delicate for all parties involved. Canada is at odds with both India and China, and its western allies must navigate their strategic relationships while considering the allegations against India. Ultimately, the outcome could impact the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region and global geopolitics.
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