A truism of national security is that leaders face an agonizing choice where neither option is favorable. In times of war, this dilemma becomes even more excruciating. Presently, the leaders of Israel are confronted with such a challenge: hostages. Hamas has initiated a war against Israel, triggered by the heinous acts committed by the Gaza-based Islamist group. In a horrifying attack on October 7, Hamas terrorists brutally murdered over 1,300 Israelis, targeting them in their homes, workplaces, and even at a music festival. They mercilessly shot babies and mutilated the bodies of others, taking numerous survivors as hostages back to Gaza.
Amidst the horror and carnage, it is essential not to overlook or forget these hostages. Israel has always operated under the belief that its enemies, who seek the destruction of the Jewish state, must understand that any cost they impose will result in a 50-fold retaliation. However, another aspect of Israel’s ethos insists that no Israeli is abandoned.
This mindset has led to prisoner swaps in the past, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision in 2011 to trade over 1,000 jailed Palestinians, many of whom had Israeli blood on their hands, for a single soldier named Gilad Shalit. This trade, which resulted in the release of Yahya Sinwar (the current leader of Hamas in Gaza) and Ali Qadhi (one of the masterminds of the recent attack, now deceased), was popular in Israel at the time. However, these consequences make Netanyahu and his war cabinet less inclined to consider further prisoner exchanges.
This background serves as a reminder that Israel’s options regarding the hostages are severely limited. This context also heightens the importance of the Biden administration’s choices, although they too are far from ideal.
As many as 199 hostages were taken during the Hamas onslaught and brought back to Gaza. Israel must now continue its fight against Hamas while also hoping for the safe release of the hostages. Complicating matters further, the hostages include not just Israelis but also Americans and individuals from other countries. How can Israel balance its military objectives with the need to retrieve the hostages?
Unfortunately, there is no simple answer. Hamas knowingly seized the hostages, fully aware of Israel’s history of making trades. On one hand, the terrorist leaders likely hoped that the hostages would serve as a deterrent against Israel launching an all-out war against them. On the other hand, Sinwar and his Hamas allies understood that if they could trade their hostages for militants held in Israeli prisons, it would be seen as a triumph among Palestinians who perceive those imprisoned in Israeli jails as freedom fighters against occupation. If Hamas were to achieve the release of prisoners despite their spree of Israeli killings, they could claim that their methods were effective. This perception would further their agenda of promoting the idea that Hamas-led “resistance” will ultimately lead to Israel’s disappearance.
Make no mistake: this is Hamas’s strategic goal. Their objective is not to end the occupation but rather to eradicate Israel.
Given this implacable enemy, Israelis across the political spectrum believe that Hamas must be neutralized or eliminated in Gaza after the October 7 attack. It is crucial that Hamas experiences a decisive defeat. This ensures that their ideology of violent rejectionism does not gain traction in the region.
While the emotional impulse to release and recover the hostages is understandable, it cannot come at the price of granting Hamas a significant victory.
As challenging as rescue efforts may be in densely populated urban areas with hostages scattered across multiple locations and tunnels, they present a more favorable prospect for Israel’s leaders than negotiating a trade. Moreover, at this moment, it is unclear who Israel’s counterparts in such a bargain would even be. Qatar, for instance, cannot be relied upon to mediate when it provides safe haven for Hamas leaders who justify their actions through press releases. Turkey, too, cannot be expected to act as a broker given President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s sympathies towards Hamas due to his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Israel’s mistrust of Qatar and Turkey, coupled with limited ability to influence them, leads them to look to the Biden administration to utilize US leverage and pursue diplomatic avenues on their behalf. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken likely pressed the Qataris during his visit to Doha to use their relationship with Hamas to secure the release of the hostages. It is possible that Qatar or Turkey, on their own initiative, may try to persuade Hamas to release the hostages, as doing so would bolster their ties with Hamas and enhance their international image. However, breaking ties with Hamas in the absence of timely hostage release seems unlikely, given the Islamist affiliations of these governments.
One option for the Biden administration is to explore a release of women and children in exchange for allowing some humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza. The administration could engage with Qataris, Turks, or preferably Egyptians, who have no interest in strengthening Hamas, to facilitate this exchange. Hamas might consider this deal to improve its international standing, while Israel would aim to manage its image by demonstrating that it is targeting Hamas, not the Palestinian people. Although this entails the risk of Hamas infiltrating fighters into southern Gaza, it remains a possible approach to consider.
A more grim possibility is that Hamas will renew its threats to execute hostages, either in response to Israel’s anticipated ground incursion or to pressure the US, particularly if American lives are at stake. Undoubtedly, the Biden administration is already consulting with Israel on how to proceed with the hostages. Overall, President Biden has indicated that there will be unwavering support for Israel, and there are reports that a US hostage-rescue unit has been deployed to Israel to aid in potential coordination. This suggests the possibility of shared intelligence and joint efforts to conduct rescue operations, especially if Hamas follows through on their threats to execute hostages. However, rescue operations are typically considered a last resort due to their high risk and complexity, despite having the potential to save some hostages.
This horrific crisis does not offer any immediate or straightforward solutions. Currently, the best way the White House can assist Israel is by continuously calling for the unconditional release of the hostages. Emphasizing the damage inflicted on the Palestinian cause by Hamas’s illegitimate use of innocent victims to gain leverage is crucial. Above all, the US should exert pressure on those who have influence over Hamas and make them aware of the repercussions of associating with a death-obsessed group, rather than a group focused on life.
Denial of responsibility! Vigour Times is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
