Popcorn buckets are pictured during the “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” concert movie world premiere at AMC The Grove in Los Angeles on Oct. 11, 2023.
Valerie Macon | AFP | Getty Images
Taylor Swift fans had only eight hours to purchase tickets for last-minute previews of her highly anticipated concert film, The Eras Tour.
The result? $2.8 million in ticket sales.
While this may seem low compared to superhero blockbusters, it’s important to note that the film wasn’t initially scheduled for a Thursday release. In fact, fans were only informed about the early screenings late Wednesday night, and tickets for the 6 p.m. showings were only available starting at 10 a.m. local time on Thursday.
Despite the modest Thursday night earnings, box office analysts remain confident in the potential success of Swift’s film.
“A storm is brewing,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The last-minute announcement generated an impressive early box office number, but the true potential of the film lies in the pre-sales and the incredible enthusiasm of Swift’s fans. We can expect a blockbuster-style weekend.”
Industry expectations suggest that Taylor Swift’s film could earn between $40 million and $60 million on Friday alone, with a projected opening weekend of up to $150 million. If it surpasses $96 million, it will secure the highest opening film record for the month of October, overtaking “Joker” from 2019.
However, predicting the exact outcome is a challenge, as Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, explained. “Everything depends on the amount of walk-up business Swift can attract, in addition to her dedicated fan base who already purchased tickets in advance, and the average ticket price.”
With a release in approximately 3,850 theaters, Swift’s film will have the widest domestic distribution for a concert film. It is also expected to achieve the highest opening weekend for a concert movie, outperforming Miley Cyrus’ “Best of Both Worlds Concert” from 2008, which earned $31.1 million during its domestic debut, according to data from Comscore.
Furthermore, many box office analysts project that the film will gross over $263 million globally during its limited theatrical run, surpassing “Michael Jackson’s This Is It” and becoming the highest-grossing concert film in history.
Last week, AMC Entertainment, the film’s distributor, already reported pre-sales exceeding $100 million for its theaters throughout the entire run of Swift’s film.
Swift’s box office success is aided by ticket prices that are more than 40% higher than the average for this year’s releases. The base prices for standard format tickets start at $19.89 for adults and $13.13 for children, reflecting Swift’s birth year and her lucky number, 13. Premium formats like IMAX and Dolby have higher costs.
In addition, theaters are expected to see a significant increase in concession sales. Specialty popcorn buckets, unique drinkware, and exclusive cocktails are likely to attract moviegoers. Many locations are also planning on hosting in-person events such as friendship bracelet-making tables, adding to the overall experience and making it more memorable than just a typical trip to the movies.
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