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The writer is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an adviser to Gallos Technologies
Russian and Chinese espionage targeting the western world has intensified significantly. Recent months have seen the exposure of multiple suspected intelligence officers and agents by authorities in the UK, Norway, and the US. In response, Russia and China have been resorting to questionable espionage charges to detain western individuals. A dangerous cycle is unfolding.
While concrete statistics on the exact number of Russian and Chinese intelligence officers and agents operating in the west are currently unavailable, the escalating number of arrests in recent years provides a clear indication of their increased activity.
Five Bulgarians were recently arrested in the UK on charges of spying for Russia, the fugitive German fraud suspect Jan Marsalek is being accused of involvement in Russian espionage according to British prosecutors, and Norway has detained an academic suspected of being a Russian intelligence officer posing as a Brazilian researcher. Additionally, a suspected GRU officer was arrested while attempting to infiltrate the International Criminal Court.
In separate incidents, a parliamentary researcher and an academic were arrested in Britain on suspicion of spying for China, and two US Navy sailors of Chinese origin have been detained on additional espionage charges. Sweden has witnessed the conviction of two brothers of Iranian descent, one of whom had served in Sweden’s military intelligence agency, Must, for spying on behalf of Russia.
This surge in espionage activities reflects a notable change in tactics employed by both Russia and China. Former Must chief Major General Gunnar Karlson explains that Russian and Chinese intelligence operations have intensified because they seek more significant results and are willing to take greater risks. On the other hand, Western authorities are increasingly opting for prosecution instead of merely expelling or disrupting spies, as was common practice in the past. According to Karlson, this shift signifies that intelligence agencies now possess better evidence, as cases are typically taken to court only when there is potential for a guilty verdict.
Nevertheless, publicly revealing and shaming spies has not proven as effective as expected by the intelligence alliances of the Five Eyes nations and their partners. Karlson confirms that Russia and China remain unembarrassed by such actions and that they have a disruptive, rather than a deterrent, effect.
Consequently, both countries have resorted to detaining random western individuals as bargaining chips in their negotiations. China arrested Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, accusing them of espionage as retaliation after Canada detained Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on suspicion of violating sanctions. While Beijing denies any connection between the cases, the release of the “two Michaels” in 2021 coincided with the dropping of charges against Meng and her return to China. Similarly, Russia is currently detaining Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on questionable espionage charges.
This is likely due to the fact that Moscow and Beijing, despite their spies being arrested or prosecuted, remain determined to retrieve their agents. And if they cannot identify and arrest equivalent western spies, any westerner will do. China’s recently amended Counter-Espionage Law provides the same protection for “documents, data, materials, and items related to national security and interests” as it does for state secrets, without specifying what constitutes “national security” or “interests.” Consequently, any westerner in China becomes vulnerable to arrest. Russia also interprets national security with a similarly broad scope.
As a result, with the increasing number of arrests of Russian and Chinese spies, the threat to western individuals traveling in these countries has risen. This threat is not limited to those with a background in security services or government, and it is essential for tourists and business travelers to be aware of this. “It’s obviously regrettable. . . I’d like to see the Hermitage,” Karlson says. “But you can live with it.”
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