Since the onset of the pandemic, labor unions have experienced a revival, making progress in unionizing companies like Starbucks and Amazon and securing strong contracts for hundreds of thousands of workers. Last year, public support for unions reached its highest point since the Lyndon Johnson presidency. However, despite this resurgence, labor unions have yet to face a true national test of their strength. The potential U.S. railroad and UPS strikes were averted at the last minute, and the impact of the ongoing strikes by writers and actors has been largely limited to Southern California.
The United Automobile Workers’ strike, which began on Friday with workers walking off the job at three plants, has the potential to be the gut-check moment the labor movement needs. A contract that includes significant wage increases and other concessions from the automakers could establish organized labor as a formidable economic force and accelerate the recent wave of union organizing. However, there are risks involved. A prolonged strike could harm General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (which owns Chrysler, Jeep, and Ram), potentially pushing the politically crucial Midwest into recession. If the union is perceived as overreaching or settles for a weak deal after a costly work stoppage, public support may dwindle.
According to Michael Lotito, a lawyer representing management at Littler Mendelson, unions are currently seen as “cool,” but prolonged strikes across multiple states could change public opinion. The union’s new president, Shawn Fain, has emphasized the class struggle between ordinary workers and corporate giants in his video meetings with members leading up to the strike. This framing of the negotiations has resonated with many U.A.W. members, who view the strike as an opportunity to regain lost concessions and set a precedent for other industries.
Labor activists believe that the outcome of the U.A.W. strike could have a ripple effect across other industries, as workers pay close attention to labor actions. However, the strike may also negatively impact nonunion workers and their communities, causing frustration and hardship. Jay Timmons, the chief executive of the National Association of Manufacturers, warned that small and medium-sized manufacturers in the automotive sector’s supply chain would bear the brunt of the work stoppage, regardless of whether they are unionized.
While higher wages and benefits for workers can stimulate the economy, some argue that the aggressive demands of union leaders like Fain could discourage investment in the United States and make companies less competitive against foreign rivals. John Drake, vice president of transportation, infrastructure, and supply chain policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, emphasized the long-term financial viability of the auto companies. Even union supporters acknowledge the risks associated with the strike, particularly if the U.A.W. fails to make significant gains or if companies respond by shifting production to Mexico or automating operations.
Given the potential threats, the U.A.W. may feel justified in taking a more ambitious stance toward the automakers. The union’s ability to organize new plants, especially in the Southern states where it has historically struggled, will be vital in preventing the shifting of work to other regions. Winning a strong contract could increase the union’s chances of attracting members in the South.
Caution can also be detrimental to the union’s cause. Workers often become disillusioned when union leaders talk tough but settle for a subpar deal. Union leaders must avoid repeating the mistakes of the previous U.A.W. administration in order to maintain the support and trust of their members.
Fain’s strategic framing of the fight in broader class terms seems to be working in the union’s favor, as a Gallup poll shows that 75 percent of the public supports the autoworkers in the current showdown. This widespread public support sets the current labor movement apart from the unsuccessful air traffic controllers’ strike in the early 1980s, which resulted in a loss of power for labor unions. By building a broad coalition and messaging beyond their immediate base, the U.A.W. may be able to achieve a different outcome.
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