During the Covid pandemic, Johns Hopkins University and its scientists emerged as a highly reliable source for tracking the global progression of the virus on a daily basis. If you want to demonstrate to your team that you take their mental health seriously, why not try this certification?
In May, the World Health Organization (WHO) and US agencies announced the end of the global public health emergency for Covid. However, we are still witnessing spikes in new variants. So, just how concerned should we be about these new variants? To shed light on the current situation, Quartz spoke with Shaun Truelove, an associate scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Truelove is an infectious disease epidemiologist who leads a team that updates the Covid scenario modeling hub. This hub builds upon Johns Hopkins’ previous efforts in Covid tracking and creates long-term projections for the next four to six months, helping decision-makers understand the potential impact of the virus.
Quartz: How significant is the increase in new Covid variants in the US?
Shaun Truelove: The increase is quite substantial, but I must mention that it is not necessarily due to the new variants alone. We are still uncertain about the exact driving force behind it. The current landscape of variants is very chaotic. Throughout the pandemic, new variants would emerge with different characteristics. Some were more transmissible, like the alpha and delta variants, while others had immunoescape abilities, like the omicron variant. These distinctive lineages quickly took over. However, what we are experiencing now is a multitude of new variants, some of which are more dominant, like EG.5, but they lack a strong distinctiveness. There is a swarm of variants with similar characteristics and mutations, but it’s a mixture of different things.
We are not witnessing an omicron-like event where a new variant comes in and causes a surge in cases across the board. As we enter the fall, a typical respiratory virus season, we are seeing increases in influenza, RSV, and Covid.
We haven’t had a significant period without a peak throughout the entire pandemic. Our last peak was in December 2022. Previously, we used to have peaks every five to six months, with new waves occurring. The scale of what we can expect this season is unclear. However, there is not much evidence to suggest that this season will be particularly more severe than previous seasons.
Quartz: How much should people be concerned about new variants and their impact?
Shaun Truelove: People should not necessarily be worried about the variants themselves. The variants are not drastically different, but they do mean that people can still get infected and become ill. Just like any virus, there are certain populations that are at a higher risk and should be concerned. Similar to influenza, individuals in these populations should ensure they are vaccinated and take personal precautions such as wearing masks.
The evidence shows that the majority of people who have been infected and vaccinated multiple times experience mild illness. We are not at a stage where we need to consider shutting down businesses and schools due to concerns about new variants.
However, there is still a level of severity, as with other viruses, and the number of deaths will increase as the season progresses. Currently, we are experiencing 617 deaths per week, which is a significant number of people. The individuals at higher risk and those who are immunocompromised are more likely to be among those who die. However, this doesn’t mean it cannot happen to anyone; there are rare cases that we should not ignore.
Quartz: If the majority of people have been vaccinated, why do we see more variants and infections?
Shaun Truelove: Vaccines do not provide permanent immunity. The virus continues to change, and immunity gradually decreases. The virus evolves to be able to keep transmitting by developing new characteristics. While our vaccines were effective a year ago, they were not developed specifically for the current virus. There is still some level of protection against severe symptoms. The new vaccines being developed will be reformulated to align with the circulating variants.
We are closely monitoring the extent to which the variants can escape immunity. So far, we have not witnessed a major extreme event. It’s more about observing whether the swarm of variants is evolving rapidly or slowly. However, it is not entirely impossible for a divergent strain like omicron to emerge. This virus continues to surprise us with its ability to change and adapt.
I believe we are approaching a reality similar to how we deal with influenza. Of course, this can change with any variant, but at this moment, we are moving more towards a seasonal situation. Is there a chance that schools or businesses may have to consider lockdowns or shutdowns again? It’s a possibility, but the evidence suggests that it is highly unlikely. The evidence shows that we are building immunity even against new divergent strains. Even with omicron, the immunity gained from previous infections or vaccinations significantly prevents severe illness. While it is not completely out of the question, the population’s overall immunity from numerous infections and vaccinations makes lockdowns or shutdowns unlikely.
We must accept that we are unlikely to reach a future in which there is no circulating coronavirus. It is more probable that it becomes part of the seasonal set of pathogens we face every year, causing deaths, hospitalizations, and illnesses. Do you recommend that people take precautions at this time? I understand that people may be resistant to it, but wearing masks does work. The most important thing individuals can do is, if they are experiencing symptoms, avoid going to work and do not send their sick children to school. If you are going to the grocery store, wear a mask to prevent infecting others. If cases are rising in your area or if you are traveling by air, wearing a mask is a wise idea. I know it can be difficult to go back to these measures, but they can make a significant difference. Practicing individual control measures like washing hands is also crucial. Vaccination may not provide long-term immunity, but we know it has a major impact, especially for individuals at higher risk of severe outcomes.
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