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Good morning! Will the Conservatives continue cutting funding for HS2? It’s highly likely. However, the Labour party is unlikely to promise reversing those cuts in the next election. In this note, we delve deeper into this topic. Follow Stephen on X @stephenkb and share your thoughts and feedback with us at [email protected].
Losing focus
The reason behind the Conservatives’ potential decision to reduce the scope of High Speed 2 and the Labour party’s hesitancy to reverse those reductions lies in the fact that people don’t vote for economic growth itself. Voters instead focus on the benefits that economic growth brings, such as tax cuts, increased police presence, better schools, improved healthcare, and a transition to a decarbonized economy. However, the electoral base that prioritizes “growth” is relatively small.
This is why Keir Starmer, while discussing his plans to renegotiate the UK’s Brexit deal, made it clear that he wouldn’t advocate joining the customs union or the single market. Likewise, Rishi Sunak may prioritize promising temporary tax cuts over extending the HS2 line beyond Birmingham. Labour also avoids committing to reversing any further reductions in the rail project’s scope. Despite the government’s cost-cutting measures, the price of HS2 has risen from £37.5 billion in 2013 to over £70 billion in 2019 prices. Labour wants to focus its additional spending on key areas that resonate with voters, such as schools, hospitals, and the police.
However, this approach presents several challenges. Firstly, Starmer’s emphasis on improving economic growth contradicts his manifesto pledges, which are predominantly centered around these vote-winning areas. While he hopes that the UK’s years of spending restraints didn’t hinder economic growth, it’s possible that his decision to prioritize topics such as HS2 and childcare costs could make governing more challenging.
In his column today, Martin Wolf explains that both spending and taxes in the UK will continue to rise. Despite pretending otherwise, both parties will inevitably make more promises that will be difficult to fulfill. Starmer aims to secure a mandate to address these challenges and implement significant changes to how the UK operates. However, many of these changes may only be inferred from his manifesto. Starmer’s leadership of the Labour party serves as a template for his approach – he made specific pledges while reaffirming the left-wing values that the party embraced in the 2017 and 2019 elections. He used his mandate to bring Labour closer to his vision during the 2020 leadership race.
However, these challenges become more significant when transitioning from opposition leader to prime minister. Starmer’s dilemma is to ensure that the party’s ambiguity on issues like HS2 doesn’t make him appear untrustworthy to voters. Now, let’s switch gears!
I had a fantastic weekend trying out a new recipe featuring seasonal figs – highly recommended! Breaking my predictable routine, I read the paper on Sunday morning instead of Saturday. I came across a fascinating article on surge pricing, which shed light on its past, present, and future. Emma Jacobs’ piece on the secret history of teenage bedrooms brought back memories, and I thoroughly enjoyed Tim Hayward’s review of Merkato. Although Wolkite is my top Ethiopian restaurant in the area, Merkato and the Queen of Sheba also offer exceptional dining experiences. Here are today’s top stories:
Rates approach peak level: Financial markets and economists anticipate another quarter-point increase in interest rates at the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. If approved, this would bring the borrowing cost to 5.5%, its highest level since early 2008.
NHS strike impact: Doctors across all levels of the NHS in England are planning an unprecedented strike. The health service’s top clinician warns that the strike will disrupt almost all planned patient care. Senior hospital managers express frustration at the lack of action to resolve the deadlock.
Keir Starmer at the Global Progress Action conference: Starmer highlights the “axis of insecurity” in his speech at the conference in Montreal. He discusses the cost of living crisis, the war in Ukraine, and climate change, emphasizing that Labour has the best solutions for all three challenges.
Record-breaking rent increase: Residential rents in the UK surged by an average of 12% in August, marking the largest annual increase on record, according to estate agent Hamptons.
Unite launches “red wall” campaign: Unite, Labour’s largest union backer, announces that funds earmarked for the party will be redirected to campaigns demanding more radical policies on energy, steel, and green jobs in industrial constituencies across the UK.
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