War lingers as a perpetual concern in Israel, but the threat of invasion and indiscriminate slaughter has been absent for decades. However, in the early hours of this morning, Israeli military outposts and settlements experienced a haunting glimpse of such a nightmare. Hamas launched a bold operation that could potentially escalate into a large-scale regional conflict, unprecedented since 1973. Thousands of rockets rained down on Israel, followed by a land-air-sea assault on targets in southern Israel. Commandos, utilizing gliders, trucks, and dune buggies, stormed Israeli military posts near Gaza. Harrowing images circulating on social media depict dead Israeli soldiers and elated Hamas fighters celebrating the destruction of armored vehicles and the pilfering of lighter ones. The scenes of carnage and cruelty unfolding in Israel draw chilling parallels to the campaigns of the Islamic State in Mesopotamia.
Disturbingly, the images of dead soldiers pale in comparison to those of Israeli civilians apparently being killed during incursions into nearby towns and settlements. Some photos depict elderly women at a bus stop, their belongings still beside them, as blood and entrails seep from their lifeless bodies. Unconfirmed reports suggest even graver atrocities, with gunmen supposedly going door-to-door, indiscriminately murdering residents as they cower in fear. Startling videos are emerging, showing civilians beaten and drenched in blood, whether it be their own or others’. These individuals appear to have been taken hostage and transported to Gaza. The dead are not spared from this fate either. Two videos have surfaced, indicating that Hamas has brought the corpses of Israeli soldiers to Gaza, goading crowds to desecrate them. In one, a woman’s body is partially stripped and subjected to spitting.
The firing of thousands of rockets and the coordination of commando raids require meticulous planning and covert support. The failure to anticipate these actions could lead to dismissals and loss of command for Israeli generals and intelligence operatives. The mere presence of a single hostage hidden away in a tunnel in Gaza has the potential to paralyze Israel for years. Reports suggest there are now dozens of hostages, in addition to kidnapped remains and over 100 confirmed Israeli deaths at the time of this writing. The magnitude of these failures has historically been enough to topple governments. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leading the Israeli right, has long claimed responsibility for the relative peace of the past decade. However, that era of tranquility has come to an end, leaving Netanyahu’s legacy in ruins. The only factor that may divert full blame from his government is the perception that the Israeli left fared even worse in handling the situation.
Recriminations have only just begun, yet it may still be too early to pass judgment. At present, the geopolitical ramifications of this war are only beginning to be grasped. Hamas enjoys support from backers such as Iran and Syria, and unlike their sluggish Israeli counterparts, they likely had ample time to strategize the unfolding of this conflict. Hamas would not risk endangering its sponsors by launching a war without prior consultation, especially a war employing tactics, such as hostage-taking and parading corpses, specifically designed to enrage Israel and its allies.
The most foreseeable consequence of this war is a halt in the process of diplomatic recognition between Saudi Arabia and Israel. These countries have long maintained a functional security partnership, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly willing to expand it to encompass complete normalization, given the right conditions. However, this becomes an impossibility when a significant number of civilians on both sides are losing their lives, their mutilated bodies displayed across social media. Iran stands to benefit from slowing down or even obstructing this process.
It is less evident why Hamas would be willing to pay such a steep price for a single victorious day. While Israel will certainly be stung by this attack, they will inevitably respond in kind, and it is likely that the number of casualties in Gaza (both combatants and civilians) will surpass that of Israel. This raises the question of whether this shocking surprise attack, one that will undoubtedly harden Israel’s security stance for years to come, is merely the opening gambit of a greater offensive. The most apparent next step would be the initiation of a northern front, along the Lebanon border, by Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah. Israel has already activated reserves and issued alerts in the north. Yet, the chaos in the south is so extreme that one could reasonably question Israel’s ability to effectively manage two fronts simultaneously.
During last week’s Atlantic Festival, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, remarked, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” He further expressed that his involvement in Middle East crises and conflicts had significantly decreased. However, if a war were to engulf Israel and questions arose surrounding the nation’s survival, the United States would find itself under pressure to evaluate its ammunition stockpile. How much would remain reserved for Israel after providing support to Ukraine? And what of Taiwan, now next in line? These complex questions present Iran, Russia, and China with an opportunity to collectively and individually test the limits of the United States.
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