Donald J. Trump’s lead in the Republican primary continues to grow.
He reached over 60 percent of the vote in Fox News and Quinnipiac polls last week, with leads of 60-13 and 62-12 over his closest competitor, Ron DeSantis.
What’s even more remarkable is that Trump’s lead has grown despite a tumultuous 50-day period for his campaign. He faced federal and state criminal indictments related to the 2020 election and even skipped the first presidential debate, which was watched by over 10 million people. However, these setbacks seemed to have little effect on his popularity.
These recent gains put Trump in a rare position. He is polling as well as any candidate in the history of modern contested presidential primaries, approaching the level of George W. Bush’s lead over John McCain in the 2000 race. In fact, he is matching Bush’s position in the latest polls.
It’s important to remember that the race could still become more competitive, as seen in the 2000 election. Bush initially skipped the first two debates but ultimately won the nomination after winning New Hampshire and steadily defeating his opponents. While Trump’s competition seems weak at this point, there is always a chance for a turnaround.
On paper, Trump faces greater risks than Bush did, including the risk of imprisonment. He is also relatively weak in Iowa, where his remarks about abortion may raise concerns among religious conservatives. Despite this, his lead in Iowa is similar to Bush’s lead in New Hampshire 24 years ago.
Unlike Bush, Trump hasn’t gained the support of Republican elites. While DeSantis is not a factional candidate like McCain, there is still a chance that Trump’s skeptics could unite against him, especially if a criminal trial takes place during the primary season.
However, so far, Trump’s theoretical risks haven’t materialized. His unique strengths, such as being a former president, have likely contributed to his resilience in the face of challenges. The opposition is also well known, unlike McCain’s lesser-known rivals. This makes it difficult for candidates like DeSantis, Pence, and Christie to gain momentum.
The winner of the first debate, Nikki Haley, represents the best-case scenario for Trump. While moderate and capable of attracting anti-Trump votes from DeSantis, Haley is unlikely to pose a serious threat for the nomination.
Although history and current circumstances suggest a potential closer race, it’s important to acknowledge the reality of the situation. The Republican primary currently exhibits features of a noncompetitive contest, with a commanding lead for Trump, his avoidance of debates, and the party’s reluctance to challenge him despite reservations. This resembles the dynamics of the noncompetitive Democratic race. Trump’s lead in the latest polls is similar to President Biden’s leads over Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
However, there are several factors that differentiate the Republican contest from the Democratic one. Unlike Biden, Trump faces mainstream challengers, and the Republican race is more closely contested in the early states where Trump’s support is below 50 percent. If DeSantis were to defeat Trump in Iowa, it could potentially rally Republicans around him, similar to moderates consolidating for Biden against Sanders in 2020. Additionally, the possibility of a federal trial in March adds an extraordinary element to the race. All of these factors could contribute to a more competitive race in the future.
For now, however, the race is not highly competitive.
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