Unlocking Climate Contradictions: Understanding Less Future Warming and More Current Pain at UN Talks

Climate experts shared that while the world is projected to warm much less than expected a decade ago, the current climate change pain surpasses what was initially anticipated. These apparent contradictions are among the pressing issues facing parties at the United Nations’ ongoing climate talks in Dubai.

During this significant conference, which features the first global climate assessment since the Paris Agreement, a key focus will be the phasing out of fossil fuels. Surprisingly, this conference will be overseen by the chief executive officer of an oil company.

Although emissions of heat-trapping gases are still increasing, the rise is slower than previously projected. Scientists initially projected a 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warming, but this number has now been reduced to 2.7 degrees (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit). Despite pledges for action to reduce emissions, the actual cuts have not materialized yet.

Climate scientists and environmental activists emphasize the devastating impacts of just 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming. They warn that these repercussions drastically outweigh the benefits of reducing future warming projections.

As for emissions, experts are urging for the role of fossil fuels to be the focal point of negotiations. They stress the need for a phase-out – or at the least, a phase-down – of coal, oil, and gas to effectively combat the climate crisis.

However, the host country of these talks is an oil state, and the company’s CEO presides over the conference, which raises concerns about the potential outcome. Despite skepticism, many countries are optimistic that a phase-down of fossil fuels in the agreement is inevitable.

Environmental activists and even some United Nations officials express apprehension as countries pledge to cut emissions while simultaneously sanctioning substantial fossil fuel projects.

Stay updated on climate news at AP’s climate and environment section (http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment) and follow Seth Borenstein on X (@borenbears) for more updates.

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