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The successful passage of the cargo ship Joseph Schulte from Ukraine to Turkey this week has proven Kyiv’s decision to challenge Russia’s threats against commercial shipping in the Black Sea.
However, Ukraine now faces a bigger question: will other commercial vessels be willing to follow the Joseph Schulte’s daring example and call Russia’s bluff?
Since July, when Russia warned that any civilian vessel leaving Ukraine’s ports would be considered a military target, the German/Chinese-owned cargo ship was the first to navigate outside of Ukrainian waters.
By undertaking this risky journey, Ukraine aimed to demonstrate its ability to establish a secure corridor across the Black Sea to ensure the uninterrupted flow of its exports despite Russian aggression.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the ship’s voyage as an “important step towards restoring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea”. Last week, Kyiv announced plans to establish a “humanitarian” corridor in the Black Sea for cargo ships to safely leave its ports. However, analysts doubt that commercial shipping will fully resume without Russia’s consent.
The Joseph Schulte arrived in Istanbul on Friday after a two-day voyage from Odesa, where it had been docked since February 2022. This journey followed weeks of increasing tensions over shipping lanes. Ukraine had threatened to attack vessels heading to Russian ports and targeted a Russian oil tanker in August. Russia also fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel en route to a Ukrainian port on the Danube River.
Nevertheless, Ukraine proceeded with its experiment, confident that its onshore defense systems, with a range of approximately 100 nautical miles, could deter the Russian navy from launching an assault.
During its transit through Ukrainian waters, the Joseph Schulte remained within the designated corridor known as Ukraine’s “zone of destruction” for hostile Russian ships, according to Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s navy. Ukrainian anti-ship rocket launchers are positioned along the coast to defend against any naval attacks within their range.
“All we can do is suggest the safest route to shipowners and captains,” said Pletenchuk. He stated that the Russian forces were unable to target the Joseph Schulte because “they are very restricted”. “If they come any closer, we will sink them,” added Pletenchuk.
The Joseph Schulte followed the Ukrainian coastline within the designated corridor before entering the waters of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey—three NATO members that make it more challenging for Russia to engage in hostilities.
The vessel transported 30,000 tons of cargo, including foodstuffs, although its owners declined to provide specific details about the voyage and emphasized that it is not primarily a grain carrier.
While the Joseph Schulte’s departure from Ukraine’s waters caused wheat prices to decline, Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research at Rabobank in London, believes it is unlikely to be the sole factor influencing the “extremely volatile” market.
Mera stated that evidence of other vessels successfully loading cargo from Ukraine, rather than solely departing its waters, could further reduce prices. However, such a scenario is “very unlikely” without Russia’s consent.
“I don’t think we should interpret this as a sign of the corridor being restored without Russia’s agreement,” said Mera. “Russia was willing to bomb Odesa the day after they cancelled the corridor, so I believe it will not attract commercial vessels into Odesa in the foreseeable future.”
According to an official from the Turkish defense ministry, ships crossing the Black Sea do so at their own risk, but they can generally expect normal peacetime operations once they reach the Turkish Straits. The official also disclosed that Ankara is continuing negotiations for the renewal of the Black Sea grain agreement.
Ukrainian analysts argue that the new route, if operational, would be more efficient as it bypasses the Russian inspections ships underwent under the UN-Turkey grain deal brokered in August 2022.
The UN-Turkey grain deal previously caused significant delays as
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