Drones have had a profound impact on the war in Ukraine, with both sides utilizing them in significant quantities. However, concerns have arisen due to China’s decision to restrict exports, potentially leading to supply issues.
Many of these drones are commercially manufactured in China and purchased off-the-shelf, making new supplies crucial to compensate for the high number of drones lost during the conflict.
There are signs that the availability of Chinese drones and parts to both Ukraine and Russia is decreasing.
The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a London-based think tank, reveals that Ukraine loses approximately 10,000 drones each month.
Various volunteer groups have played a crucial role in restocking the Ukrainian army’s drone supplies, utilizing donated funds.
Alongside purpose-built military drones, commercial drones, such as the Turkish Bayraktar and Iranian Shaheds, are also employed.
As of September 1, the Chinese government has imposed new restrictions. These restrictions apply to longer-range drones weighing over 4kg, as well as certain drone-related equipment like cameras and radio modules.
Chinese manufacturers of such equipment must now obtain export licenses and provide end-user certificates. The Chinese government, which has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, also stipulates that commercial Chinese drones should not be utilized for military purposes.
According to Ukrainian volunteers and soldiers, the recent Chinese restrictions have had minimal impact on the availability of drones, particularly the widely used lightweight Mavics produced by Chinese company DJI.
However, there is concern regarding the availability of drone parts, with fears that the situation may worsen in the future.
Lyuba Shypovych, head of Dignitas, one of the largest Ukrainian volunteer groups supplying drones to the military, states that the only noticeable change has been an increased effort to purchase remaining stock from European warehouses. The future remains uncertain.Reference
