After experiencing the warmest June on record, the British summer has taken a turn for the worse in July. The temperatures have dropped significantly, and the presence of rain and clouds has given the feeling of autumn rather than the peak holiday season. So, where did the sunshine go? Scientists suggest that a ‘blocked weather pattern’ is to blame, and climate change may have played a role in its development. This pattern brought low pressure to the UK at the beginning of July, resulting in cooler temperatures and wetter days, which have persisted without any sign of shifting.
The jet stream, a high-speed air current in the atmosphere responsible for directing weather systems from the Atlantic towards the UK, can contribute to the stalling of weather patterns. Its position can vary, influencing the type of weather experienced in the UK. During a typical British summer, when temperatures are warmer and drier, the jet stream remains to the north of the UK, pulling up hot air across the country. In winter, it sits further south, bringing wet and windy weather as low pressure systems approach the UK.
Forecasters do not anticipate the return of hot weather to the UK until at least mid-August, despite Europe entering what is predicted to be its hottest week ever. This contrasting weather is not a coincidence, according to scientists. Atmospheric Rossby waves, created by the Earth’s rotation, along with the blocked weather pattern, are responsible for the extreme weather conditions experienced in different regions. Giant, planetary waves in the atmosphere, when blocked, can cause relentless heat in some regions and intense rainfall, flooding, or cool and showery conditions in others.
It is uncertain how much climate change influences these weather patterns, especially the jet stream, which naturally fluctuates in waves. However, the unprecedented ocean warming patterns due to human-caused climate change are likely disturbing the planetary waves and jet streams that affect weather patterns. In addition, the Arctic region’s rapid warming compared to areas further south might be interfering with the jet stream. As atmospheric wind flow relies on temperature differences from north to south, weakening temperature contrasts could lead to a weaker and more frequently wavering jet stream, triggering prolonged periods of certain types of weather.
Whether climate change is increasing the likelihood of blocked weather patterns or not, it is intensifying the extremes during prolonged periods. Currently, the UK is experiencing a cold spell, but last month it was a heatwave. The question remains: what weather will the future bring?
The UK experiences five primary air masses: Polar Maritime, Arctic Maritime, Polar Continental, Tropical Continental, and Tropical Maritime, along with a variation known as the returning Polar Maritime. The prevailing westerly winds result in the UK primarily receiving maritime air masses. The Polar Maritime air mass, originating from Greenland and the Arctic Sea, brings cold and wet air, leading to chilly and showery weather. The Arctic Maritime air mass comes directly from the Arctic, bringing wet and cold air that leads to snowfall in winter. The Polar Continental air mass, exemplified by the Beast from the East in 2018, originates from Siberia and results in hot summers and cold winters, leading to dry summers and snowy winters. The Tropical Continental air mass, originating from North Africa, provides the much-desired heatwaves and sunny weather of summer. Finally, the Tropical Maritime air mass, arriving from the Atlantic Ocean, brings warm and moist air, often accompanied by cloudy and rainy conditions.
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