When NATO leaders gather in Lithuania this week, they aim to send a strong message to Russia about their united stance against President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. However, the unity of NATO may be compromised by leaders like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who have refused to admit Sweden as the bloc’s newest member. This highlights the disruptive power of individual member states and poses a threat to NATO’s deterrent power in the face of the standoff with Russia.
Erdogan and Orban, although problematic allies, are important to NATO. They have been criticized for anti-democratic practices but also recognized for their military contributions to the alliance. The dispute over Sweden’s accession highlights the divisions within NATO, including disagreements over military spending, Ukraine’s path to membership, and the recent decision to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine.
Despite the urgency brought by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO has not directly provided arms to Ukraine but has coordinated Western support. Like Finland, Sweden decided to abandon its military nonalignment in response to the invasion. Erdogan has dropped objections to Finnish membership but still refuses to approve Sweden’s entry, citing various complaints.
Turkey’s reasons for opposing Sweden’s membership include refusal to extradite individuals Ankara sees as terrorists and protests in Sweden against Erdogan’s government and Quran burnings. While senior U.S. and NATO officials claim that Stockholm has met the terms to address Ankara’s security concerns, Erdogan refuses to send Sweden’s accession protocol to Turkish lawmakers.
Turkey’s stance on Sweden is not just a political tool, but also a bargaining chip to extract a concession from the United States. The approval of Sweden’s NATO candidacy appears to be linked to a $20 billion deal for American F-16 fighter jets, which has faced opposition due to Turkey’s records on rights and its stance towards Greece.
The complex relationship between Turkey and Russia, which includes economic ties and rivalry, adds another layer of complication to Turkey’s opposition to Sweden’s membership. Turkey’s ties with Russia have been a point of contention with Washington, and its acquisition of a Russian air defense system led to sanctions and removal from the F-35 fighter jet program. However, Turkey has also been a valuable contributor to NATO and has supported Ukraine.
Hungary’s refusal to ratify Sweden’s accession is less about Sweden and more about Orban’s affinity with Erdogan. Hungary’s ties with Putin, skepticism towards Ukraine’s goals, and refusal to allow arms shipments to Ukraine through its territory make it an outlier within NATO.
In conclusion, the refusal to admit Sweden as a member of NATO by leaders like Erdogan and Orban undermines the alliance’s unity and deterrent power. It also highlights the divisions within NATO on various issues. Resolving these differences is crucial for NATO’s strength and effectiveness in countering the threats posed by Russia.
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