Britain is currently home to an abundance of former prime ministers, although their service to the country may vary. While Theresa May and Liz Truss continue to serve as MPs, with the latter seeking vindication for her free-market views, David Cameron has taken a more low-profile approach following the Greensill saga. On the other hand, John Major and Gordon Brown have reminded voters of the time when prime ministers were regarded as serious individuals, and Boris Johnson, well, remains Boris Johnson. However, one ex-leader stands out from the rest with his unwavering drive and ambition.
Tony Blair still has much to offer Britain. His platform of influence comes in the form of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, which operates as both an ideas factory and consultancy. If the Labour party wins the next election, the TBI could become the UK’s most influential think-tank. But it’s not your typical think-tank. It also functions as a government advisory service, blending ideas with an understanding of political power. Blair actively utilizes his convening power and is deeply involved in the TBI’s policy output, often playing a role in the initial research. The institute’s analyses reflect his own political passions. Essentially, the TBI serves as Blair’s International consultancy for the British government.
While his ideas may find the most receptive audience within a future Labour administration, the institute officially maintains a non-partisan stance. Blair is more concerned with the ideas themselves rather than the specific vehicle that implements them. A close ally comments, “He would be just as pleased if Rishi Sunak were to adopt his ideas.” A recent report on artificial intelligence challenges, co-written by Blair and former Tory leader William Hague, almost seems tailor-made for a prime minister’s desk. The TBI has become the voice of the “militant center,” equipping liberal leaders with strategies for modernization.
Therefore, it’s important to not only pay attention to individual papers produced by the institute but also to the broader spectrum of its views. The recent output strongly reflects Blair’s belief in a strategic state where national interests take precedence over individual desires for the greater public good.
The overarching vision is to reconstruct the state to effectively confront significant forces of change. Suggestions include the creation of super-pension funds from private schemes to improve returns and invest in essential infrastructure. Planning reform is deemed necessary to prevent local opposition from obstructing crucial energy development. Blair advocates for the pooling of individual health data to enhance outcomes and urges the establishment of a unified national digital identity. Given his keen interest in technology, he also calls for a national scientific effort to confront the opportunities and challenges posed by AI.
If all this sounds somewhat familiar, it’s because even Tory radicals, like former Downing Street strategist Dominic Cummings, have expressed similar sentiments. Both Cummings and Blair exhibit impatience with the limitations of the state in leveraging the power of data and other technological advancements.
The TBI benefits greatly from Blair’s lucrative consultancy work and abundant resources, allowing it to operate as both a consultancy and a well-staffed think-tank. Funding sources have included the Saudis, as well as collaborations with the Larry Ellison and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations. In 2021, the combined turnover of the consultancy and think-tank amounted to $35 million. With a current staff count of 850, the TBI is experiencing rapid growth.
Sir Keir Starmer must be cautious about getting too closely entwined with the TBI. Blair remains a polarizing figure, causing divisions even within the Labour party. Furthermore, Blair has become increasingly uncompromising. Friends suggest that he feels his project of transforming Britain was left incomplete, partially due to the Iraq war legacy and his failure to garner sufficient support for the EU to prevent Brexit. The TBI serves as his platform for reviving that mission.
The upcoming Future of Britain conference, the second of its kind, will see a gathering of New Labour figures, almost resembling a reunion event. Blair and Starmer maintain regular communication, and several key figures from Blair’s era are integral to Starmer’s team. There is also evidence of policy coordination, with Blair’s energy security report coinciding with a Starmer speech on the subject. Recent proposals on pensions have also overlapped.
However, despite talk of the TBI becoming Starmer’s de facto policy unit, a certain detachment persists between the two entities, potentially due to Starmer’s recognition of the political risks they entail. As one ally notes, “The TBI possesses smart individuals and excellent policy products, but somehow Tony’s arguments don’t quite align with the messaging of the shadow cabinet.”
This discrepancy can be attributed, in part, to the contrast between campaigning and governing. Starmer proceeds cautiously, while Blair remains bold and impatient. Voters may be wary of an overly influential state. The ally adds, “Keir’s mission is to win the election; Tony’s mission is radical modernization. Blair’s zealousness can be off-putting.” Nonetheless, friends assert that Blair has faith in Starmer and is laying the groundwork for more daring initiatives should he assume office. While Starmer may currently have reservations about Blair, this dynamic could shift once they are in power. Labour’s shadow cabinet lacks governing experience, and in such an event, the TBI would undoubtedly become the go-to consultancy.
Modernizing the state cannot be reduced to a mere campaign slogan. It is a vital ingredient for both Starmer’s success and that of the UK as a whole. Blair holds strong views on what is needed, making it crucial to pay closer attention to his ongoing contribution. His business with Britain remains unfinished.
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