Manitobans have a crucial election approaching in exactly one month, on Tuesday, Oct. 3. Unofficial campaigns have already begun, with incumbent Premier Heather Stefanson leading the Progressive Conservatives in their pursuit of a third consecutive victory. However, they face a formidable challenge from the NDP.
Stefanson, who became premier after winning her party’s leadership race in fall 2021, aspires to be the first woman in Manitoba’s history to win the job in a general election. Her primary opponent is Wab Kinew, the New Democrat Leader. If the NDP emerges victorious, Kinew will make history as Canada’s first “First Nations” provincial premier.
Although Stefanson’s party has trailed in the polls during her time as premier, the gap has significantly narrowed. Niigaan Sinclair, a professor in Native Studies at the University of Manitoba, notes that Stefanson has shown support for divisive movements such as the “Freedom convoy” and the anti-vaxx movement. Her willingness to use divisive language concerning Ottawa and Justin Trudeau has raised concerns.
Even though the vote is a month away, both parties have been actively campaigning since late spring and anticipate a fierce competition. Mary Agnes Welch of Probe Research predicts a close race, with victory potentially determined by small margins in specific neighborhoods and ridings.
This election marks Kinew’s second as NDP leader. Although the Tories secured a majority in 2019, Kinew was credited with revitalizing the NDP and gaining eight seats. The NDP’s approach portrays Kinew as a premier not only for First Nations but for all Manitobans. This strategy recognizes that catering solely to Indigenous interests would not secure an Indigenous person the premiership.
Stefanson aims to maintain the consecutive majority wins achieved by her predecessor Brian Pallister. The campaign focuses on issues concerning all Canadians, including healthcare, post-COVID recovery, cost of living, and crime and safety, particularly in Winnipeg.
The key battleground in this election will be the ridings surrounding Winnipeg. While the NDP holds a strong position in central Winnipeg, the PCs dominate the suburban ridings. The NDP must secure victory in these surrounding ridings to have a chance at securing power.
The PC campaign will work to persuade voters to maintain their blue representation in these critical ridings.
Overall, the upcoming Manitoba election promises an intense and closely contested race, with both parties vying for victory.
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