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The results of Thursday’s three UK by-elections might have been blurred by the Conservatives’ ability to retain the seat left by Boris Johnson in outer London. However, the underlying message was clear: it was a disastrous night for the Tories. Labour and the Liberal Democrats experienced significant gains in northern and south-west England, respectively, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling party and a readiness to give the opposition a chance in the next general election. Over the next 18 months, Rishi Sunak must resist calls for irresponsible decisions to avoid becoming the UK’s fourth shortest-serving prime minister.
Credit should be given to Labour and the Lib Dems for making their parties electable again. Nevertheless, the shift in poll numbers primarily stems from the Conservatives’ surprising collapse. Initially, Boris Johnson successfully portrayed his 2019 election victory as the dawn of a new party, distancing it from nine years of Tory rule. However, his own failings and the subsequent failure of his project shattered that illusion.
The Conservatives are now facing the consequences of their unappealing track record during their 13 years in power. The flagship Brexit policy did not deliver the promised benefits. Voters, burdened by a cost of living crisis, perceive stagnant growth, high inflation, public-sector unrest, and struggling services, all while facing the highest tax burden since the late 1940s.
Rishi Sunak, despite his efforts to do the right thing, including resolving the post-Brexit trading dispute with the EU over Northern Ireland, has yet to see any improvement in the polls. His “five pledges,” initially mocked for their lack of ambition, are proving embarrassingly difficult to achieve, including reducing inflation, shortening hospital waiting lists, and promoting economic growth.
The risk now is that the prime minister will succumb to the pleas of some MPs and adopt right-wing populism. Many will advocate for tax cuts before the next election, hoping to alleviate the cost of living crisis. They may also use the victory in Uxbridge, where opposition grew against the Labour mayor’s plans to expand London’s low emission zone, as justification to backtrack on the government’s net zero targets, following the example of right-wing parties in the US and parts of Europe.
It is imperative for the prime minister to resist such temptations. Tax cuts are unaffordable and will be seen by many disillusioned voters as mere bribes, leading them to vote for other parties anyway. Abandoning green policies is irresponsible, both for the long-term future and for alienating the young voters the party needs. Climate change should not be manipulated for political gain.
Polls indicate that Sunak is more popular than his own party, especially when he governs for the whole country instead of pandering to the fringe. His best interest lies in focusing his efforts on a small number of goals for the remainder of his term, tackling some of Britain’s long-term challenges and demonstrating that his party can deliver results.
Sunak should consider rejoining the EU’s €95bn Horizon program, which would be a significant achievement for the scientific community. He should also leverage the recent success in attracting Tata Group from India to build a £4bn battery gigafactory with the help of £500mn in subsidies, effectively showcasing how green policies can attract investments and create jobs. Additionally, Sunak should lift the ban on onshore wind, despite opposition within the Tory party, and implement financial reforms to encourage more private sector investment in growth projects.
These efforts may not guarantee a victory over Labour, but they are the right course of action for both his party and the country as a whole. Furthermore, they would secure Sunak a more favorable place in history compared to his immediate predecessors.
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