Although Donald Trump has been dubbed “Teflon Don,” suggesting he has evaded consequences for his actions, he has actually faced repercussions for some of his wrongdoing. He has lost defamation cases, his company has been penalized for tax evasion, and he has been charged with complex business crimes. However, his most significant transgressions, such as attempting to steal the 2020 presidential election, have remained unpunished.
This pattern may soon change. Trump revealed in a statement that he received a “target letter” from Special Counsel Jack Smith of the Justice Department. The letter instructed Trump to appear before a grand jury investigating his efforts to undermine the 2020 election and the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. Typically, such letters precede an indictment.
While Trump is not a reliable source due to his habitual lying, several media outlets have confirmed his receipt of the letter through other sources. This aligns with what is already known about Smith’s investigation.
Assuming Trump is likely to face charges related to January 6, the specific crimes remain uncertain. Speculated possibilities include fundraising violations, wire fraud — a common prosecutorial strategy — and even the rare charge of insurrection referred to the Justice Department by the House committee investigating January 6.
Smith has the choice to build a comprehensive case against multiple participants in the paperwork coup, which would be more complex but could yield convictions. Alternatively, he could focus on Trump or a select group of aides, simplifying the case but intensifying its political implications.
Trump currently faces legal trouble in various jurisdictions throughout the country. His lawyers have cited these ongoing cases as the reason for requesting a trial delay in federal court regarding classified document mishandling. Last month, Smith indicted Trump in that case. Additionally, the former president is facing charges in Manhattan related to hush-money payments to an adult-film actress, and it is widely anticipated that the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, will bring charges concerning the 2020 election.
These cases can be evaluated based on the likelihood of conviction and the seriousness of the crimes. While all crimes are condemnable, the Manhattan case is relatively minor, and some legal experts question the prosecution’s legal theory. The documents case, on the other hand, is very severe, involving sensitive national security materials, and the evidence against Trump is straightforward and incriminating. The Fulton County case is significant because it touches on efforts to subvert the election, but its scope is limited to actions in Georgia, making it difficult to predict the odds of conviction.
However, a potential federal case related to January 6 could be the most crucial one. Trump’s offenses in this context are incredibly grave: he attempted to undermine the will of voters through legal and political maneuvers, and subsequently resorted to violent measures. No other president has directly attacked the foundation of American democracy to this extent, surpassing even the misdeeds of Nixon.
From a layman’s perspective, Trump’s guilt seems apparent. He publicly declared victory in an election he did not win, pressured officials like Brad Raffensperger to manipulate votes in his favor, and incited the January 6 riot. His actions led to his impeachment by the House of Representatives, and although he was not convicted in the Senate, some Republican senators joined the majority in voting against him.
Nevertheless, proving these allegations beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law with admissible evidence is a challenging task. As former federal prosecutor Paul Rosenzweig stated, it is harder to establish guilt in a contested hearing than it is to acknowledge it colloquially. In February, Trump released a memo outlining his likely defense against charges related to the riot. In his recent statement, he audaciously described the case against him as “election interference.”
Political sensitivities also come into play. Regardless of the indictments handed down by Smith, the situation remains unprecedented. Trump would be contesting the charges in the midst of an election, and his lawyers are already seeking to delay the documents case until after the 2024 election. In the event of his victory, Trump would likely have the power to order the Justice Department to cease the case against him.
These factors make it challenging to confidently predict a conviction or imprisonment. However, a target letter related to January 6 would mark a significant step toward holding Trump accountable for his offenses against the United States.
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